Premiums, 7.14

The Marlins are struggling to stay in the playoff race and need wins as much as any ballclub. Somehow they managed to lose 2 games to Pittsburgh at home, so they need to take advantage of this opportunity against Zach Thompson (5.15 xERA, 1.84 HR/9 innings). There’s little about Thompson that should scare any team away and he’s due for some negative regression after some decent performance in recent weeks. The real Thompson has a pedestrian fastball and little command– Miami by margin.

I know it’s tough to go right back to a team that’s just disappointed but like the Marlins, the Padres can’t piddle-paddle around and expect to be in the postseason with finishes like that last night. Snell, who has a xERA of 3.41, a good 1.2 points under his actual ERA which means he’s been subject to some bad luck, can hold up his squad well; even in Denver. Kyle Freeland is Kyle Freeland, nothing much to get excited about there, and he’s even worse at home (5.23 ERA). I’ll bet on San Diego to take this one.

The Mariners are white hot and have now won 10 in a row. Not overthinking it – they’ve scored 4.7 runs per game during this span and even in a tough spot on the road against Texas’ best pitcher, I trust the bats and defense of Seattle. We get value with this deflated line, too. They’ve figured something out there in the Northwest.

We’ve seen this story before. Two of the league’s best pitchers and the total is extra low and in our heads we try to manage a perspective where betting on the over is the call when in actuality, we know that these two teams haven’t been impressive at all behind their bats and it’s the aces that’ll control this showdown. Under.

Here’s the thing – not only is Edmonton the worst team in CFL, by far apparently, and Montreal isn’t far behind. The Alhouettes do have one thing going for them, however, and that’s their defense. Montreal is top 3 on defense in two categories that really matter, opponent net offense and yards per play. The pedestrian Edmonton offense shouldn’t be able to do much, but they’re also terribly desperate. They haven’t won a single game so far this season so I expect them to try as hard as humanly possible, but imagining a ton of points seems rather far-fetched. A closer game than people think, I like the under and the underdog.

Two of the most explosive offenses in the CFL, Winnipeg is the favorite to win it all for good reason and a lot of that is because of their defense. Calgary would love to challenge that Friday. The Blue Bombers are capable of sticking with any team and it’s likely that the Stampeders will show up big time on the ground. Calgary’s Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best rushers in Canada and if the away team can punch Winnipeg in the mouth early and open up the pass, points won’t be limited in this contest. Like the over.

We missed the best line on this but we still have to take it. The Sky could easily argue that they only have 1 legitimate loss this season. Vegas beat them earlier in late Spring but since, it’s all been hokey no-shows and a bit of luck from less talented teams. The Sparks don’t have the defense to stop one of association’s best offenses and if the Sparks’ performance after the break against the Mystics was any indication, they don’t look any different and they likely won’t in this game either. In other words, they still suck and they’re giving up on their season. I think the Sky will win by a big margin.