As one of my more astute subscribers said to me recently – the WNBA giveth and the WNBA taketh away. We’ll land back on our feet but now I see why the woman’s pro league is so damn frustrating. I’m avoiding it today, although a sneaky wager on the Liberty at home against Chicago in a ROUGH traveling spot may not be a bad look.. An “okay” day in MLB and a win in CFL Friday – let’s gain more Ws today.
So far I have 13 responses from the survey and I really appreciate the feedback! Keep it coming. In general, most of you could care less or you love the snarky language, but more importantly most of you think I could scale back on my picks, especially when I’m on a cold streak. Totally agree with that and it’s something my wife has told me multiple times. I’m aggressive by nature and it’s something to be aware of in the wide-world of betting.
Anywho, thank you for your support and onto Saturday! Exciting card! PS – that 4 day parlay is still going strong!
MLB Picks:
Blue Jays/Sox under 9.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
Well we talked about regression on my recent podcast with Sherwood, who was fantastic (not shocking), and this is a sterling example. Those bats have to be tired after that historic scoring barrage in last night’s game, and Alek Manoah would love to get a revenge victory and blank the Sox at home after his extra-inning loss to Boston back in late June. Regression is coming.
Rockies ML (+225), to win 1.125 units (in other words, put 0.5 units on it)
This is priced wrong. Woodruff is a beast but with how pedestrian the Milwaukee offense has been this year and with how suddenly explosive the Colorado offense CAN be, this is a great spot to play on a vastly inflated line on the home team. It’s obviously likely that the
Brewers win this game, but why not take a shot on Jose Urena, who just keeps getting lucky (his 4.87 xERA tells us as much), and he might only need a little luck today with a lineup that can bring it.
Rockies Giants/Dodgers under 8 (-120), to win 1 unit
I hate that this is juiced so much but the under is the play. Urias should be able to easily keep the Giants in check, while Alex Wood (3.51 xERA, 3.13 xFIP, 0.80 HR/9 innings) has a better arsenal than he gets credit for.
UFC Picks (this starts around noon, FYI!)
Paddy the Baddy Parlay: Aspinall, McCann, Pemblett – 1 unit to win 1.84 units
Aspinall (-141), to win 1 unit
Aspinall within distance (EVEN), to win 1 unit
Aspinall to score a takedown (-120), to win 1 unit
Like our parlay above, adding more plays on Aspinall makes too much sense. Big Tom has now won 8 straight pro fights and he’s finished SEVEN of those in the 1st round. A takedown, submission, and striking artist, there’s not much left out in Aspinall’s game. He’s a versatile fighter with a 1″ height advantage and he’s in front of a home crowd, poised to make a big leap in his heavyweight history. All Aspinall for me,.
Pimblett by TKO/KO or Submission (-135), to win 2 units
I believe the hype. Pimblett is loud and brash and has a big personality like McGregor, but he can back it up. Firstly, do you know how ballsy and badass it is to be that stoic and confident before a fight? His energy resembles Connor in his hayday and that’s not easy to do. Mental games alone should give Paddy the edge, but the reality is, his repertoire is just more dynamic than Leavitt. He has a reach advantage, height advantage, and experience advantage to beat. Paddy keeps his legend going today, within distance.
McCann/Goldy – Will Fight Go Distance: No (+172), to win 1.72 units
Did you see McCann’s spinning elbow in her last matchup? I know it’s all part of the same dynamic – Paddy and McCann and now (of course) Dave Portnoy is wearing the wig and jumping on the bandwagon (that gets annoying, don’t you think?), but it’s all for good reason. McCann is an excellent fighter with a rock solid chin and aggressive nature. Questionable decision losses taint her overall record. It feels like 24k Hannah Goldy is being served up on a platter for McCann; Goldy just hasn’t had the opponents or depth of experience to survive in a fight against “Meatball” McCann, and I think it’s very possible McCann ends her night early.
Chris Curtis (-107), to win 1 unit
Hermansson is a solid fighter but he’s been on a downward trajectory for some time, showing his weakness in two recent losses against Sean Strickland and Martin Vettori. Curtis seems to only be getting better, with really impressive victories against Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira highlighting his ascent. Worth a bet on his momentum alone.
Four-Day-Parlay (still alive and beating!)
BC Lions ML (CFL)
Winnipeg Blue Bombers ML (CFL)
Paddy Pimblett (UFC)
Molly McCann (UFC)
Muhammad Mokaev (UFC)
3 units to win 7.7 units
