Hi All! England disappointed but today we have plenty of action. Added a WNBA pick and a CFL pick – let’s fucking go!
WNBA Picks (9-8, +0.85 units):
Storm/Sun over 160, (-110), to win 1 unit
The Storm just keep playing with their food and stumbling around since the break but make no mistake about it, they’re better than the Sun from beyond the arc and they’re very good at creating easy buckets. Ergo, they’ll have some advantages Thursday. The narrative of this game is obvious – the Storm will try to slow the game and assert themselves on defense, while the Sun will attempt to utilize the fast-break, as they do VERY well, and keep the game moving fast. Connecticut has one of the most potent offenses in the WNBA and this feels like a situation where the Storm will be chasing them all game while the Sun enjoy the comforts of their home arena. In a revenge spot for Seattle, I like their extra effort to keep the score climbing. The Sun -3 feels right, so we’ll play the over.
Mercury 1H ML (-130) to win 1 unit
Mercury 1H -2 (-110), to win 1 unit
We didn’t get the best number full game on the Mercury, but if it somehow goes back down to 3 or less, I’d take it. This line opened at -1.5 and almost immediately rose to -3.5, and I’m thinking most of that is because of Liz Cambage’s departure. Cambage is a dominant player when she’s thriving, which clearly she wasn’t, but her 6’8″ presence will be missed and the Mercury are in a great spot, at home, to take advantage.
CFL Picks (8-5, +3.95 units):
Montreal Alouettes +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a better spot for the Tiger-Cats after an impressive performance in a loss off very little rest, while the Alhouettes cruised over the Redblacks last weekend and they’re probably feeling fat and sassy tonight. In any case, this line opened at -1.5, where we think it should be, and now the books are giving Montreal too many points. Though neither of these teams are elite, Montreal plays well against equal or inferior opponents and they certainly have the offensive prowess to hang with a Hamilton team who seems to be figuring themselves out. Either way, this is ALL about the number, always, and we’re playing on Montreal at an inflated line.
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
