Hopefully you all got the early premium email last night at Wimbledon. I like those plays a lot. Onto a full slate of MLB and more today, and fuck the WNBA (ha). Our CFL pick changed, too, now that the line is out.
MLB Picks:
Tigers (+148), to win 1.48 units
The Detroit offense has improved steadily over the past month, becoming a top 10 team in RBIs and a top 5 team in batting average over the past week. Their wOBA is just outside the top 10, too. Pineda had one bad game recently against KC but before that, he managed a 3.26 ERA and commanded strong performances against the Yankees and Orioles. Shane Bieber is coming into his own but there’s something fishy that we still don’t trust. He’s allowing a steady 3 runs per start to whoever he faces, not bad, but his last start against Detroit was one of his better performances all season. I think the Tigers step up and hit aggressively to sweep this series – value on the home dog, again.
Cubs/Brewers first five over 4 (-115), to win 1 unit
Burnes and the Brewers can get BURNED by the Cubs, as evidenced in Corbin’s 2 previous losses against the Cubbies earlier this season, and Chicago almost always plays their NL Central rival feisty and aggressively. Two viable pitchers but the over is juiced for a reason and we agree – I expect some unexpected early points here.
Blue Jays -1.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units and
Jays/A’s over 8 (-110), to win 1 unit
Time for Toronto to get off their ass, don’t you think? And against the 1-5 pedestrian James Kaprielian? Probably a good spot. Bats- we command you to come alive, it should be too easy with this setup.
Orioles win (-105), to win 1 unit and
Rangers/Orioles over 9 (-115), to win 1 unit
For many of the same reasons as yesterday’s wagers, there’s a lot to like about Baltimore’s continued run at home, scoring at will against a bad Texas defense, and an over since neither team seems to have any insight into stopping the other lineup. That being said, we’re betting on the O’s because I trust Spencer Watkins slightly more – Glenn Otto has looked BAD and his forecasted numbers don’t look any better.
Wimbledon:
Tomljanovic/Rybakina over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
These two ladies are very evenly matched and if there’s any pattern we’re seeing, it’s that most of these games towards the end of the tournament are going longer and are getting more competitive. Lots of new blood without Serena and other former champions so it’s bound to happen. Rybakina should win but not confident enough in that- that’s what makes an over even more likely.
Halep -3.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Halep is the best women’s player left and while Anisimova is probably the best looking player left, that doesn’t get you very far at Wimbledon. Probably a quick and commanding win for Halep tomorrow.
Garin/Kyrgios over 37 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Kyrgios is very talented, has an unreal serve, and loves to beat himself on the court. Dude is so overly emotional and impulsive that almost all of his matches, especially against prime competition, should go over. Garin’s had a tough slate of opponents and he just keeps hanging in. I love this so go over.
CFL Picks:
Stampeders/Elks over 50.5 (just a lean now)
Elks +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
As long as Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell at QB and he stays healthy, this is a team that can score points. Last time the Elks nearly beat the Stampeders and had little issue scoring as well. The Elks are in a better position, at home after a loss, to at least keep this close. We’ll put a unit on the Elks and lean over.
