The real frustrating shit about my betting MLB this year is once we have a good play or we get ahead, some BS happens. White Sox keep the Tigers to 2 but lose? What? I was conservative about the Mets and just chose their ML; they win 10-0. What? Then of course no comment on the Royals, unreal, or the soulless batting between Pittsburgh and Cincy. Okay I’m done.
Fuckin CFL too, huh? Weird day. But it’s Friday, LFG. Lots of sarcasm in the below write-ups, ha.
MLB Picks:
Rays -1.5 (EVEN), to win 1 unit
McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all season (1.74 ERA, 2.21 xERA, 87% LOB rate), and he’s been even better on the road. Castillo has been mostly steady this year but for whatever reason, his ERA drops to 4.18 on his home turf. Cincinnati can’t score to save their life, while the Rays have scored 7 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Because it’s baseball and every day is opposite day, I guess we should bet on the Reds at -3.5. I’ll pray and go with what MAKES SENSE instead.
Orioles -1.5 (+140), to win 1.4 units
The Orioles are RED HOT right now, they’re 4-0 in Tyler Wells’ last four starts at home and 7-0 in his last 7 starts since the end of May. Not much scares me about Reid Detmers’s (5.02 xERA) profile and while Baltimore hasn’t been the most skilled against lefties, I’ll take momentum, confidence, and a stable pitcher any day.
Mets -1.5 (+130), to win 1.3 units
I guess this is run-line day for your boy. Pablo Lopez has fallen off the last month, offering an ugly 5.34 ERA the past 30 days. The Mets have beaten the Marlins, who historically struggle against NYM, in 6 out of their last 8 contests. Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, enters confident at home, allowing 6 runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against Miami. Oh yeah, and the Mets’ offense is rather warm right now too. All Mets.
Yankees and Dodgers ML Parlay, 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Connor Seabold sucks, Keegan Thompson is showing signs of regression, and it’s Nestor Cortes and lefty Tyler Anderson and two vastly superior lineups against the fledgling Red Sox and pathetic Cubs. Fuck you baseball, this should be a win.
CFL Picks:
Saskatchewan Roughriders -5 (-114), to win 1.5 units
This line opened with the visiting Redblacks getting 10 points initially, wow. We’ll work on getting early numbers, but that’s wild considering where it is now. A superior outfit in the Roughriders, with a great passing attack, is going up against a banged up secondary in the Redblacks. Ottawa scored their “response win” in their last game on Saturday so this showdown feels far less desperate. Meanwhile, Ottawa can’t get a pass rush to save their lives and the Roughriders probably have the best defense in the CFL. Couple that with a new offense for the Redblacks that’s still learning and growing together – the value on the dog is gone and it’s time to snag the favorite.
Wimbledon:
Norrie/Djokovic over 30.5 (-112, to win 1 unit)
1st Set, Norrie +2.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
I’m sure this is the match where Novak will play his best tennis ever, like Kyrgios did when we bet on his over, and Djokovic probably wins in 3 straight sets, 6-1 in each. Sure. But the probabilities suggest, with how lax Novak can start these matches and with how solid and proficient Norrie has been, that it should easily cruise over. Essentially all we need is Norrie to win 1 set OR keep every set close. We like those odds, and I think Norrie starts off crisp. The only 1st set he lost at Wimbledon was in his quarterfinals match 3 days ago and it almost nipped him in the bud.
