Make sure you tell your grandkids about this period of time, when MLB bets that make way too much sense just keep losing. This is history. Behold.
Enjoy your Saturday, boys and gals. And low key not so low key — I have one of those weird feelings that probably all long-time-bettors get here and there; this WILL be a winning day. Feels like it could be a big winning day. Kind of weird despite our recent results in MLB, I get it. Stay tuned.
MLB Picks:
Angels/Orioles NRFI (-115), to win 1 unit
Angels/Orioles First 5 under 4.5 (-125), to win 1 unit
Both Sandoval and Kremer had tough outings in their last starts yet they still have great ERAs and their command has been steady all season. I might attend this game today, so the last thing I want is a slow start, but this is a perfect positive regression spot for both pitchers and after last night’s melee of points towards the end, it’s bound to slow down.
Astros over 5.5 runs (-105), to win 3 units
Yes, that’s a 3 unit play. Zach Logue is a 26 year old rookie with a 7.73 xERA and he’s allowed 2.55/9 innings and 15 runs in 23 innings this season. Houston is juiced in the -300s for a reason but the better value is on Bregman, Altuve, and Alvarez to feast early and often. Six runs ain’t hard to eclipse with this setup– the Astros are white hot and showing 0 signs of slowing down.
Guardians (-128), to win 1 unit
Cleveland just keeps on winning with McKenzie and KC just keeps on losing with Heasley. The Royals have less of a stake in this series after they fought hard against the Astros, and Cleveland is overdue for some better results, particularly on offense. This is a good spot to get right and it feels like KC is about to go on another one of those spiraling losing streaks after showing some promise at Houston.
Rays -1.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units
After the way the game ended last night, on a goddamn balk, the Rays will be ready to explode today against the very winnable, very low-scoring Reds. Rasmussen does not allow many big hits and that’s about Cincinnati’s only chance to score points – big, opportune slugs. I expect Tampa to be at their retributive best today.
Blue Jays (-122), to win 2 units
Alek Manoah, literally our favorite pitcher, was on the wrong side of fireworks in his last start on the 4th. It was one of those strange, out-of-character performances that you just see sometimes in sports. It’s just variance. But when a pitcher as commanding and skilled as Manoah is in a good spot for a revenge game, that’s even more predictable and we think he’ll be at his best today. He also doesn’t drop off on the road at all, averaging a 2.47 ERA away from home. The Jays are a dangerous team when they have elite pitching and although Robbie Ray has been solid, expect more from the Toronto bats today and the Jays to finally snag a win in this series.
CFL Picks:
Blue Bombers/Lions 1H over 24.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The over is 8-1 in the last 9 Lions games and the Blue Bombers’ defense is a little fake news- they’ve survived and kept scoring low thanks to fortunate turnovers. Both of these offenses should be able to explode today and the pace should cultivate a high-scoring game. Just in case there’s some weird late-game variance and since the full game total has moved up too high, we’ll earn some units in the first half.
Wimbledon:
Jabeur/Rybakina over 21.5, to win 1.5 units
Both fighters, both powerful serves, both willing to give up a set. Makes too much sense.
UFC Picks: None today – gonna sit back and just watch this one and learn.
