Added two more plays. Are we pissed about the past 2 days in the WNBA? Yes, but we’ve also been spoiled from 2 weeks of winning. Let’s get back to it again!
Added another WNBA and NFL play, too.
MLB Leans:
None today.
WNBA Playoffs (0-6, -6.71 units):
Liberty +9 (-110), 2 units
This line is falling and for good reason. Game one was NOT a fluke. Sure, the Liberty shot WAY better from beyond the arc, but that’s nothing new – NY is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the association. And sure, Chicago had some bad runs, especially their scoreless, pitiful ending in the final minutes of the 4th QTR, but the Liberty have a real grit behind them and I think they keep it going today. That’s especially true when starters Howard, Ionescu and Laney play as well as they did. I like NY’s determination and expect this series to continue looking evenly matched.
NFL Preseason Week 2 (6-4, +2.15 units):
Saints/Packers under 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
We didn’t get the best line here but since the books are adjusting to expect more offense, and since Aaron Rodgers probably won’t play and Jameis will be very limited, if he plays at all, this feels like a good sleepy spot for some low-scoring in Lambeau.
Patriots -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Patriots lost game one to the Giants, which trust me never happens in the preseason, and this is a nice home game to get-right against a bad Panthers’ roster. Billy B and the Pats have been quiet, as usual, about their plans, but I think they play some starters and bring some extra juice tonight – it’s moved in their direction for a reason.
Texans -2 (-110), to win 1 unit
Wild line movement tells us everything here. McVay famously cares not about the preseason and Houston has a team full of young potential trying to get in reps and show off for their coach. That includes an able Davis Mills and willing run game in Dameon Pierce. Texans is the call.
Parlay: Chargers/Giants/Ravens – all predicted to care more and thus win. Gonna attempt a parlay here, which is always a bit spooky in the preseason. 0.5 units to win 1.06 units
CFL Week 11 Picks (17-11, +5.95 units):
BC Lions/Saskatchewan Roughriders over 51.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Lions are averaging 39 ppg over their last 3 contests and I see no reason to fade them in this spot. I also don’t see any reason to not love the total. Again, this is an example of pondering regression. Will BC ever slow down and will we see a lower scoring game? Maybe. But that was the story last time these two teams faced. The Roughriders only put up 17 points, amounting to their 2nd lowest scoring output all season. At home in a revenge game, I expect SSK to come out more aggressive. They have a formidable run game and unfortunately, a mediocre defense that won’t be able to stop BC unless BC stops themselves. This has another over-feel and the ancillary reasons add up.
Calgary Stampeders ML (-130), to win 2 units
At 4-4 the Toronto Argonauts sit atop the East Conference and normally that would mean something– in this game it does not. The West is clearly the more dominant half of Canadian Football and the Stampeders are now reeling, again, after another disappointing loss to the Lions last week. BC just keeps pouring it on teams and until their rhythm breaks it won’t be surprising watching them win and win. That’s not the case for Toronto. Toronto doesn’t possess the ball and they rank either mid-tier or bottom-tier in nearly every category that counts on offense and defense. Calgary is still a top 3 team from our perspective, they do a lot of things right, and luck should regress to their side in this contest. Calgary doesn’t get penalized often, they protect their QB, and they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball. Get it done, Stampeders!
UFC Picks (7-12, +2.26 units):
Usman/Edwards- Will it Go the Distance, No (+112), to win 0.56 units
Edwards ML (+300), to win 3 units
Watching their last fight, Edwards had a clear advantage in the stand up game. He was quicker, more agile, and more successful with his little jabs in the first 2 rounds. Usman, on the other hand, owns an unreal gas tank and he easily out-wrestled Edwards in the first showdown. I think that’ll change in this one. That first fight was almost 7 years ago and Edwards is a much different, much more mature fighter. Usman’s knee issues are well-documented and although I still think he should be considered the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC right now, every champ has a moment of forced humility. This feels like the one. Since their last matchup in December 2017, Edwards hasn’t lost a single fight. He’s also faced some of the best fighters in the Welterweight division during that win-span. Edwards is incredibly quick, his takedown defense has dramatically improved, and I think he catches Usman by surprise in the later rounds, which should set up a nice trilogy.
Costa/Rockhold over 1.5 rounds (-135), to win 1.5 units
Paulo Costa is a dangerous fighter but let’s face it, he really hasn’t beaten anyone. Okay he beat Yoel Romero by decision, and Yoel is a freak in more ways than one, but Romero hasn’t had nearly as much success as he should have either. Rockhold is a smart, tough veteran who still thinks he can fight for a title shot. He’s wrong, but it’s doubtful that he’ll just go down after 1 round. Na. I think Rockhold uses his veteran savvy to prolong this fight.
Albazi/Figueiredo- Will it Go the Distance, No (+115), to win 1.15 units
Albazi is an extremely good wrestler and in short, Figgy won’t have an answer. He’s just not versatile enough. I think Albazi makes another statement and gets an early victory.
