A nice 3-0 day in the NFL – I thought we won in CFL too but then saw that we took the wrong bet. The BC Lions were the play, the over was a dumb play. Anyway, gonna skip over baseball again and attack these other sports. It’s going well. Added NFL and UFC plays.
MLB Leans:
None again today – better sports to bet on!
WNBA Playoffs (0-6, -6.71 units):
Liberty +9 (-110), 2 units
This line is falling and for good reason. Game one was NOT a fluke. Sure, the Liberty shot WAY better from beyond the arc, but that’s nothing new – NY is one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the association. And sure, Chicago had some bad runs, especially their scoreless, pitiful ending in the final minutes of the 4th QTR, but the Liberty have a real grit behind them and I think they keep it going today. That’s especially true when starters Howard, Ionescu and Laney play as well as they did. I like NY’s determination and expect this series to continue looking evenly matched.
NFL Preseason Week 2 (9-4, +5.15 units):
Bills 1Q Spread, to win 2 units
Bills 1H Spread, to win 2 units
First of all, the line won’t be that crazy if it’s ever out. Second of all, it doesn’t look like any sportsbooks are eager to put out a 1Q or 1H bet on this game, probably because of the circumstances. The Bills are playing their starters “for a healthy amount” according to Sean McDermott, while the Broncos aren’t planning on playing any of their starters. So, based on that, any questions? Didn’t think so. Might be a good idea to bet on the Broncos live if the line gets too inflated. Josh Johnson and the Denver offense can come back in the 2nd half.
Same story as above for the Chiefs
Chiefs 1Q Spread, to win 2 unit
Chiefs 1H Spread, to win 1 unit
Although I’d go 2 units in the 1Q, 1 unit in the 1Q if they’re ever available. Again, we’re taking the spread, not ML. Although ML feels like a damn guarantee, it’ll be inflated as shit.
Bengals +5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Giants should win this game since Cincinnati isn’t playing any starters BUT, the Giants have
Parlay: Chargers/Giants/Ravens – all predicted to care more and thus win. Gonna attempt a parlay here, which is always a bit spooky in the preseason. 0.5 units to win 1.06 units
CFL Week 11 Picks (17-12, +4.90 units):
Calgary Stampeders ML (-130), to win 2 units
At 4-4 the Toronto Argonauts sit atop the East Conference and normally that would mean something– in this game it does not. The West is clearly the more dominant half of Canadian Football and the Stampeders are now reeling, again, after another disappointing loss to the Lions last week. BC just keeps pouring it on teams and until their rhythm breaks it won’t be surprising watching them win and win. That’s not the case for Toronto. Toronto doesn’t possess the ball and they rank either mid-tier or bottom-tier in nearly every category that counts on offense and defense. Calgary is still a top 3 team from our perspective, they do a lot of things right, and luck should regress to their side in this contest. Calgary doesn’t get penalized often, they protect their QB, and they’re rock solid on both sides of the ball. Get it done, Stampeders!
UFC Picks (7-12, +2.26 units):
Usman/Edwards- Will it Go the Distance, No (+112), to win 1.12 units
Edwards ML (+300), to win 3 units
Watching their last fight, Edwards had a clear advantage in the stand up game. He was quicker, more agile, and more successful with his little jabs in the first 2 rounds. Usman, on the other hand, owns an unreal gas tank and he easily out-wrestled Edwards in the first showdown. I think that’ll change in this one. That first fight was almost 7 years ago and Edwards is a much different, much more mature fighter. Usman’s knee issues are well-documented and although I still think he should be considered the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC right now, every champ has a moment of forced humility. This feels like the one. Since their last matchup in December 2017, Edwards hasn’t lost a single fight. He’s also faced some of the best fighters in the Welterweight division during that win-span. Edwards is incredibly quick, his takedown defense has dramatically improved, and I think he catches Usman by surprise in the later rounds, which should set up a nice trilogy.
Costa/Rockhold over 1.5 rounds (-135), to win 1.5 units
Paulo Costa is a dangerous fighter but let’s face it, he really hasn’t beaten anyone. Okay he beat Yoel Romero by decision, and Yoel is a freak in more ways than one, but Romero hasn’t had nearly as much success as he should have either. Rockhold is a smart, tough veteran who still thinks he can fight for a title shot. He’s wrong, but it’s doubtful that he’ll just go down after 1 round. Na. I think Rockhold uses his veteran savvy to prolong this fight.
Albazi/Figueiredo- Will it Go the Distance, No (+115), to win 1.15 units
Albazi by Submission (+285), to win 2.85 units
Albazi is an extremely good wrestler and in short, Figgy won’t have an answer. He’s just not versatile enough. I think Albazi makes another statement and gets an early victory.
