Anyone else suffer from insomnia? I do, hence this 3:45am local time post. Yay. This is why I like the ol’ Delta 8 gummy – best sleep aid ever. Skipped it tonight and now we see the results. Anywho, might as well send you all an early email while my restless ass is awake.
Four weeks ago I gave out Notre Dame at +15 for 1.5 units. That seems dumb now since many books moved that line up to +16 or even +16.5, so we’re seeing better numbers. Find the best number you can and put 1.5 units on it. Officially we’ll keep it at +15, even though that sucks for me, but I still think that line is wrong. I have it as Ohio State -11.
Also, the third week of the NFL preseason is bound to be more unpredictable. Our 8-1, +9 unit run was awesome, but don’t be shocked if/when I have very few picks this weekend. I’m not in the business of betting on something solely because we’re on a hot streak. In fact, that’s usually a big-time mistake. Regression cometh for all of us.
Onto more picks and I’ll continue to add to our CFB picks, too.
MLB Leans (not official plays):
Cardinals (-180)
Orioles (+126)
Mets (+105)
Rangers/Rockies under 11 (-120)
WNBA Playoffs (1-8, -9.05 units):
Liberty/Sky over 165 (-110), to win 1.5 units
For new premium customers who don’t know, we were absolutely slaying the WNBA as the regular season ended. As you can tell, not so much in the playoffs. Wonky results and weird lines have thrown us off, but we like the Tuesday/Wednesday slates better. I’ll start with this game. The Sky finally found their rhythm on offense 3 nights go, destroying the Liberty by 38 points to tie the series. Chicago’s probably the right side today, too, but I’d rather take the over. NY couldn’t shoot for shit in game two, but both offenses have found success in this series. With desperation setting in on both sides and when there’s bound to be plenty of free throws shot at the end of every quarter, I love the over in this contest.
(Wednesday)
Sun -6 (-110), to win 2 units
Sun TT over 85.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Dallas Wings are a formidable outfit but their game two win felt very flukey. You won’t see the Sun shoot that poorly from beyond the arc very often (28%) but that was the difference in the game. The Wings shot nearly 42% from 3 point land and nearly 50% from the field. Expect the Sun to look like themselves again – love them to blow open this game early and I expect them to maintain a lead throughout.
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units
Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
