Nice 4 unit day in the WNBA last night. Let’s get some more today! Hopefully you all bet on the under for tomorrow’s HOF game – that line has moved down but we gave it out early last week. Also got an MLB parlay that’s NOT a lean, aka it’s an official play, below in red.
Onto the hump!
NFL First Pick of the Season!
HOF Game Under 33 (-105), to win 1 unit
Hall of Fame games have averaged 29 ppg since 2012, and now more than ever, teams are trying to avoid injury and avoid showing all their new talent in the preseason. That’s especially true in the Hall of Fame game. It’s more a scrimmage or practice than a game, so I think it’s well worth a shot at the under.
MLB Leans:
Tampa (+114)
Baltimore (+133)
Mets/Nats under 9 (-110)
Parlay: Astros/Yankees ML, 1.5 units to win 2.05 units
The Yankees and Astros both got bested by their competition last night and this is a great redemption spot at home for both teams. Cole is on the mound for NYY against Luis Castillo, who despite his solid numbers this year just isn’t a pitcher we trust. And Urquidy (3.86 ERA) hasn’t been stellar but he’s facing a pitcher in Brayan Bello who’s exclusively got murdered on the mound (8.82 ERA) and comes into this 0-3. With a name like “Brayan,” I guess we should expect as much. Can’t see this NOT hitting but then again, it’s baseball.
WNBA Picks (17-13-1, +3.8 units):
Atlanta Dream ML (-360), to win 1 unit
Atlanta Dream 1H ML (-195), to win 1 unit
Atlanta Dream -8.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Normally I don’t stack big ML plays but in this case, it’s worth the caution. The Atlanta Dream have been stumbling, losing and failing to cover their last 4 contests. Still, the Dream have an outside spot for a playoff bid and this is a fantastic get-right spot for them at home against the association’s worst. Atlanta is one of the best in the WNBA at rebounding, on defense, in 3-point shooting, and in gaining second-chance opportunities. Expect them to regress to the mean and do well in those categories tonight. The Fever are a wretched 5-27 overall and 10-21-1 ATS this year, unsurprisingly. Time for the Dream to gain some confidence and overwhelm a vastly inferior team.
CFL Picks (8-10, -3.20 units):
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit (Thursday)
The Montreal Alhouettes are a tough team to figure out, but Winnipeg is not. The Blue Bombers are proving every week that they’re the best team in this league and it’s not even close. Winners of the CFL’s last two titles, the Blue Bombers proved how amazingly resilient they are when they went to Calgary and still bested the CFL’s best team of yesterday. Calgary was either the Grey Cup champion or the runner-up for year’s on end but Winnipeg has officially taken over. Not only did they win last week, they dominated the entire game, and a huge part of that is their defense. Montreal really struggles to stop anyone with their defense. I know this is a big game for them, at home, but I can’t not pick the Bombers for under a TD. Only 1 unit out of respect for variance in a spot that’s not ideal.
Calgary Stampeders -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units (Friday)
Speaking of the Stampeders, this is a big response game for them. The Bombers stifled their offense throughout last week’s big contest but make no mistake, they’re a potent attack, especially in their run game. Ottawa might have their guard down a bit after a nice win, but their run-defense is at the bottom of the league; not a good thing against a mad Calgary team who likes to run it down opponent’s throats. The Stampeders do just that; stampede over the Redblacks and control this game.
