Premiums, 9.7

Same angles, and you know why.

Chimaev might take it easy at first — Nate Diaz is still dangerous and he’s an absolute dawg, even if he’s not in his prime anymore. But Chimaev is very likely to end this early. Dude has that weird, psycho-killer mentality, like he’s literally not normal, and Dana White and others aren’t just hyping him up when they claim he might be one of the best the UFC has ever seen when it’s all said and done. Looking for value –  we like this approach.

Ferguson is one of the most durable UFC fighters of all time and he’ll be even more on guard after he got knocked out in his last brawl. Li is talented and should win by points, but I still believe Ferguson has one more win in ’em. I like the value of this wager better.

Johnny Walker losing to Jamahal Hill is not something to be ashamed of. Hill is primed to contend for a Light Heavyweight championship and he’s tearing through the division. Ion Cutelaba is not in the same class as Hill and Johnny Walker must be primed and ready for a better performance. Walker is a freak, explosive athlete who can be a bit out of control at times, but no more than Cutelaba. Ion is infamous for his antics, in the octagon and out, and he’ll be out-sized and significantly out-reached in this fight. Walker takes the win and I think there’s a decent chance he does it before the final bell. I’m unimpressed by Ion.

I think the Ravens will be on a MISSION this year, with a revamped, healthy defense and a big contract year for Lamar to show out, I don’t think NYJ has a shot.

This was one of my favorite bets last year in Week 1 and it remains one of my favorites this year — playing on the Steelers! Pittsburgh is perpetually underrated and we think this line will drop once the country starts seeing more crisp QB play from Kenny Pickett. I also think Mitch Tribusky will look better than advertised out the gate, creating a situation that’s tough to predict for their opponent in Week 1. The Steelers have the best defensive line in football in my opinion, because of their talent AND depth, and it’s not unlikely that Joey Burrow and the over-confident Bengals will come out fat and sassy assuming they’ll get a W against their division rival. Even at home, that’s a mistake against Pittsburgh. Well-coached, a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and a better QB room than people think – we’ll take the Steelers to cover on the first Sunday. Would NOT be shocked if they won straight up.

I don’t know why I didn’t give this shit out a while ago, makes me mad and proves how insanely busy things have been because I’ve liked it for months. Now I like it even more. Dameon Pierce is looking like a real beast, which only adds to this narrative I like. Davis Mills has a defiant personality and he’s better than people think. It’s at Houston. Indy has basically no wide receivers, and it’s a huge line for a Week 1 divisional game. Take the Texans and don’t look back.

We’ll build upon this narrative and write up as the week goes on, but there’s something a little off in Washington, while there’s something sneakily exciting about the media coverage in Jacksonville. I think there’s a real chance the Jags win straight up, so we’ll take the 3 in case it moves down.

There’s evidence to believe that the value is gone here since Dallas’ offensive line is somewhat depleted and the Bucs’ offense might be clunky to start. Naa. I still like it. The Bucs and Tom Brady should be trusted and ready to prove their merit on a big stage in Dallas. The Cowboys want to show out, too — I think this is a 30-24 ballgame.

Browns +8, Ravens win, Jags +10.5, Patriots +9.5, 1 unit to win 2 units