Another winning night in Tennis, and we win our first NFL bet! Let’s see if I can get through this email without any damn typos. Added more CFB picks (in red), we have one US Open play for today, and it’s likely I will send out the final (final final) NFL picks list today. Gotta put a bow on it eventually. Football baby! Let’s goooo!
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (14-7, +5.83 units):
Alcarez/Tiafoe over 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both of these surging studs are at the top of their game and while Tiafoe made quick work of his last opponent, he’ll do no such thing today. Alcarez is 19 years old and many experts’ pick to be the next tennis phenom. Tiafoe is feelin’ himself as a U.S. competitor attempting to make his ascension in the U.S. open and that momentum has made a difference. Big serves and entertaining vollies are coming – I think this goes at least 4 sets and that’s probably all they need to go over.
CFB Week 2 Picks (8-7-1, -0.35 units):
Arkansas State/Ohio State over 68 (-110), to win 1 unit
The total doesn’t match the spread (-44) on the Buckeyes, who are bound to explode, at home, after a pedestrian showing on offense against the Irish. Notre Dame has a very formidable defense though (and we knew that, despite being doubted constantly) — can’t say the same thing about Arkansas State. I think Ohio State annihilates their opponent Saturday; they might score 68 themselves.
North Carolina -7 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The only thing that scares me away from this line is that it probably should be more. I know Georgia State isn’t the worst team in the Sun Belt but NC is being graded like a schlep after a near loss to a very formidable App State team when the Mountaineers play at home. I don’t think the Panthers can keep up with the Tar Heels offense.
App State/Texas A&M over 54 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Texas A&M’s defense showed up last week but why the hell wouldn’t they against Sam Houston St. Appalachian State is hungry to keep that offensive momentum going after nearly beating UNC at home last weekend and although an SEC defense may be too much to handle for most possessions, I think App State can get close to 20 points in this. That will create a game narrative where the Aggies play less conservative than they did last week and continue to score against an App State defense that, after last weekend, we know should not be feared.
Tennessee/Pitt under 65.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is too inflated and I expect it to fall. The strength of both of these programs is their defense and although both had higher scoring outputs in Week 1, their opponent will present different problems in this matchup. Regression to the norm and a potentially sloppy day in Pittsburgh add on to our liking the under here.
Parlay Iowa ML and under 40, 1 unit to win 2 units*
* Correlated parlays count towards ATS records, just FYI
Can’t believe in the Iowa State Cyclones after they lost so much talent on offense, going up against their in-state rival who’s owned them the last 5 years, and oh yea– the Hawkeyes might have a better defense than ever. Sloppy as always I’m sure, I think Iowa pulls it out late in another close, defensive battle.
Florida International -13.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
FIU’s offense looks great and Texas State embarrassingly got blown out by one of the worst teams in CFB according to most sharps (Nevada) last Saturday. I don’t think Texas State can keep up — these lower market games are exposable so why not take advantage?
San Jose State/Auburn under 50 (-110), to win 1 unit
Auburn may have the best defense in the SEC this year – please hold, too early to call – but there’s a shot. San Jose State struggled against Portland State in Week 1… When team total props come out we’ll probably bet on SJS under, but for now we’ll take the full game total under. SJS may not score a point.
USC -8.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I know it’s on the road at Stanford, a “rivalry,” sure, but I believe in the new-look Trojans and think they could be a powerhouse in the near future again. This line opened at -11, which was too much obviously, and quickly corrected down to 8 before moving back to 8.5. Pure numbers play for me as I have USC winning by 10. I think Stanford could potentially get exposed in this contest, and it’s too early for them to be overly motivated for it. All Trojans for this guy.
UFC 279 Picks (12-12, +11.88 units):
Chimaev in Round 2 (+330), to win 1.65 units
Chimaev in Round 3 (+700), to win 3.5 units
Chimaev might take it easy at first — Nate Diaz is still dangerous and he’s an absolute dawg, even if he’s not in his prime anymore. But Chimaev is very likely to end this early. Dude has that weird, psycho-killer mentality, like he’s literally not normal, and Dana White and others aren’t just hyping him up when they claim he might be one of the best the UFC has ever seen when it’s all said and done. Looking for value – we like this approach.
Li/Ferguson over 2.5 rounds (-105), to win 1 unit
Ferguson is one of the most durable UFC fighters of all time and he’ll be even more on guard after he got knocked out in his last brawl. Li is talented and should win by points, but I still believe Ferguson has one more win in ’em. I like the value of this wager better.
Johnny Walker wins (+175), to win 1.75 units
Johnny Walker wins within distance (+335), to win 1.675 units
Johnny Walker losing to Jamahal Hill is not something to be ashamed of. Hill is primed to contend for a Light Heavyweight championship and he’s tearing through the division. Ion Cutelaba is not in the same class as Hill and Johnny Walker must be primed and ready for a better performance. Walker is a freak, explosive athlete who can be a bit out of control at times, but no more than Cutelaba. Ion is infamous for his antics, in the octagon and out, and he’ll be out-sized and significantly out-reached in this fight. Walker takes the win and I think there’s a decent chance he does it before the final bell. I’m unimpressed by Ion.
