Congrats to Scottie Scheffler who has been on an other worldly tear right now winning four of his last six starts. He never really faltered all tournament and you always felt like he had control. For that reason, this years Master’s and probably since Tiger won in 2019, Sunday hasn’t been all that eventful.
Well… we got killed at The Masters losing every single bet. I’ll always be transparent about the wins and losses. I thought going into Sunday we had a shot at Niemann T20 and Bez T40 to make us even for the week but, both guys had a terrible final round. Despite the losses were still up +22.94 Units in the past ten weeks. It’s going to be a normal card as we’re not going to chase this week.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: April 14th, 2022- April 17th, 2022
- Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina, USA
- Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
- Course Type: South Carolina/ Southeast
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,121 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis
- Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass
- Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 0.75″
- Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft. (Average)
- Purse: $8,000,000 / Winner $1,440,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 54
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 9 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 3,700 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 70.33 (-0.67), Rank 26 of 51
- 2020: 69.14 (-1.86), Rank 37 of 41
- 2019: 71.17 (+0.17), Rank 11 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Pete Dye & Jack Nicklaus (1967)
- Renovations: Scot Sherman (2020)
- Comparable Courses:
- Round 1: Thursday, April 14th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, April 15th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, April 16th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, April 17th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Mostly Cloudy 71 F, 13 mp/h SSW, 75% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 69 F, 12 mp/h NE, 71% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 70 F, 8 mp/h SE, 77% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 68 F, 11 mp/h NE, 78% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The RBC Heritage, first debuted on the PGA Tour 53 years ago, in 1969. The venue for this tournament has remained constant since that date.
It is one of five PGA Tour events to be given “invitational” status which limits the field to 132. Along with the small field, the tournament can be more selective as to which golfers qualify for this event. Also, invitational events do not offer Monday qualifying events so the field is set unless any withdraws.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
We head to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina. This is one of the shorter courses on Tour that places a premium on approach shots. Given it’s length playing just over 7,100 yards, distance off the tee isn’t all that crucial as we’ve seen given the list of previous winners.
All four of the Par 3’s range between 190-200 yards so you’ll definitely want to take a look at Par 3 Efficiency 175-200 yards. Out of the eleven Par 4’s, six of them range from 400-450 yards. So again, another key stat to look at this week will be Par 4 Efficiency from that range. There’s only three Par 5’s on the course so the scoring opportunities will be slightly limited on that front.
The main defense for the course is the water, which comes into play on half of the holes and the wind. Given the current forecast, it looks as though the wind will definitely be a factor this week but, not like what we saw in 2019.
Scorecard Source: John Haslbauer
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
- Course History
The Field/ Odds:
Given that we’re fresh of the Masters, the field this week is obviously not the strongest. However, it still is a good field that features five players with the Top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings.
Justin Thomas, is the current favorite for the RBC Heritage. He’s listed any where from 12-1 to 14-1 depending on which sportsbook you have access to. JT finished 8th at the Masters last week. So far in every event he’s entered in this year he has made the cut. In his three previous appearances at Harbour Town, he’s also made the cut every time. The last time he played here was in 2020 when he recorded his best finish in this tournament finishing 8th.
Collin Morikawa, who recently took over 2nd in the OWGR, is currenlty listed at 14-1 on most major sportsbooks. He’s coming off a great Sunday performance at the Masters where he finished 5th. Collin has only played in this event twice before finishing 64th in 2020 and 7th in 2021. His elite iron play make him a great fit so we’ll see if he can build off that heading into this event.
Cameron Smith, who finished runner up at the Masters last week is listed at 16-1. He’s had an incredible start to the season winning twice on Tour so far and will look to add to that impressive resume here. Last year he recorded his best finish at this event in five appearances finishing 9th. Given the form he’s in and how well he played here last year, it wouldn’t be a shock if he captures his third win on Tour this year.
Dustin Johnson, who’s currently listed at 18-1, has yet to finish outside the Top 30 in this event in all four of his previous appearances. His best finish here was in 2020 when he finished 13th. Despite those impressive numbers, he has yet to finish inside the Top 10 here.
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- Price: 150-1
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- Price: 30-1
- 2019: C.T. Pan (-12)
- Price: 160-1
- 2018: Satoshi Kodaira (-12)
- Price: 250-1
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- Price: 80-1
Picks (Outright):
- Sungjae Im (+3300) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
- Joaquin Niemann (+3500) – PointsBet
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
- Daniel Berger (+3500) – Caesars
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
- Alex Noren (+5000) – PointsBet
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
- Matt Kuchar (+6600) – PointsBet
- Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
- Kevin Streelman (+8000) – PointsBet
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+120) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
He’s finished inside the Top 20 in 3 of his last four appearances at the RBC Heritage. In his last eight starts on Tour, he has finished inside the Top 20 in seven of them. He’s one of the best ball strikers on Tour and given the length of the course, his lack of distance off the tee wont hurt him.
- Kevin Kisner (+220) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Kisner’s lack of distance off the tee isn’t a concern this week, like it was last week at the Masters. He’s a great putter and a short game specialist. While he has missed the cut at this event in his previous two appearances, I think he fits the course very well. He’s also in great form finishing 4th at THE PLAYERS Championship and 2nd at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play event.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Mito Pereira (+145) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
So far Mito has played in 15 events this year. In eleven of those events he has finished inside the Top 40. However, in those other four events he has missed the cut. He will be making his debut at the RBC Heritage but given the strength of the field, I like his chances to finish T40 this week. Mito is one of the best players on Tour in terms of SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green. While his short game is of slight concern, he has gained strokes around the green in four of his last five starts.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the RBC Heritage: 4.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
