The Houston Open was certainly an eventful tournament with plenty of lead changes happening throughout. Jason Kokrak at 50-1 gets his third win in 13 months and remains red hot. Crazy enough Kokrak almost missed the cut heading into the weekend after a disastrous back nine in his second round shooting 41. He would go on to make the cut by two strokes and win the tournament making 13 birdies over his final 36 holes. We didn’t have any outrights in contention on the final day but did cash on 2/3 Top 20’s (List & Burns) giving us a profit of 1.94 units.
The PGA Tour travels down to Georgia for the RSM Classic a unique event that features two courses. Sea Island Resort has two courses on the grounds, the Seaside and the Plantation courses, each with their own twist. The pros will play a round at each the Seaside and Plantation courses on Thursday and Friday. They’ll finish the weekend with both rounds being played on the Seaside course. This is also one of the larger fields on the PGA Tour with 156 golfers in the mix this week rather than the typical 132.
This field of 156 is headlined by Scottie Scheffler at 14-1 who was heavily bet to win the Houston Open last week. He would end up finishing T-2 after struggling in the first round. Other favorites this week include Webb Simpson (16-1), Cameron Smith (18-1), Louis Ostheuizen (25-1), and Corey Conners (27-1). Kevin Kisner (50-1) will also be a betting favorite as he’s from the area and had success on this course in the past.
Withdraw(s): Adam Schenk (replaced by DJ Trahan)
Tournament Information:
- Dates: November 18th, 2021- November 21st, 2021
- Location: Simons Island, Georgia, United States
- Course: Sea Island Resort (Plantation and Seaside Courses)
- Course Type: Coastal
- Courses:
- Plantation Course:
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,060 yards
- Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .100″
- Fairways: Platinum Paspalum .400″
- Rough: TifEagle bermudagrass 1.5″
- Stimpmeter: 11- 11.5 feet
- Bunkers: 81
- Water Hazards: 10 (In-Play on 10 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 6,100 sq. ft.
- Seaside Course:
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,005 yards
- Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .090″
- Fairways: TifEagle bermudagrass/ Platinum Paspalum .400″
- Rough: TifEagle bermudagrass 2″
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet
- Bunkers: 47
- Water Hazards: 14 (In-Play on 12 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,200 sq. ft.
- Plantation Course:
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
- Purse: $7,200,000 / Winner $1.296 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Scoring Average:
- 2020: 71.34 (-0.66)
- 2019: 70.44 (-1.56)
Course/ Tournament History:
The RSM Classic, previously known as the McGladrey Classic until 2015, has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since its debut in 2010. In 2015, the tournament also switched to the dual course setup utilizing both the Seaside and Plantation Courses at Sea Island. Between 2015 and 2019 this was the final PGA Tour event on the calendar year but was switched to the fall there after. This year will also feature it’s largest purse of $7.2 Million an increase from the 2020 purse of $6.6 Million. Another interesting note is that the last three winners of this event have been decided in a Playoff. The current odds for the RSM Classic to end in a playoff is +333. Kevin Kisner holds the course record for -22 under Par when he won the event back in 2015. Kisner was also a runner up last year so he should be an name you keep an eye on this week. This event has also been dominated by Americans, winning every year except for 2016 when Mackenzie Hughes defeated four others in a playoff. If you’re looking to hop on this trend you can bet for the nationality of the winner to be American at -200.
Course Guide/ Scorecards:
- Plantation Course: Thursday or Friday Round
Players this week will only see the Plantation course once this week, either on Thursday or Friday so I’m not all too concerned about this course. The Plantation Course is also not equipped with Shot Link data which limits are SG research. This course is more of Parkland style that features tree lined fairways and water coming into play on a majority of the holes. The Plantation Course features four Par 5’s, unlike Seaside, that provide additional scoring opportunities. While distance and power haven’t really been a factor in the recent tournaments here, it will play a factor on those four holes. Davis Love III recently renovated this course changing the contouring on the greens making them more difficult.
- Seaside Course: Thursday or Friday Round, Saturday and Sunday Rounds
The Seaside course is the less challenging of the two courses that players will face this week. As you can tell by the scorecard, the course is one of the shortest on the PGA Tour. Most courses on Tour use length to try and prevent the event from becoming a “birdie fest” however, Seaside relies on the wind as it’s main defense. Seaside is a coastal/links style golf course that features wide fairways and greens. The tournament is won on approach shots and putting. Most of the greens are elevated with large runoff areas which emphasizes Greens in Regulation % as a key stat this week. The bermudagrass putting surface will also provide some challenge for players who aren’t particularly used to the grainy surface. Capitalizing on birdie opportunities will be placed at a premium this week based on the previous winners scores.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Plantation Course:
- Course Architect: Walter Travis Colt and Allison (1928)
- Renovation: Davis Love III (2019)
- Seaside Course:
- Course Architect: Harry Colt and Charles Alison (1929)
- Renovations: Tom Fazio (1999)
- Comparable Courses:
- Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
- Port Royal (Butterfield Bermuda Championship)
- Round 1: Thursday, November 18th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, November 19th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, November 20th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, November 21st, 2021
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 65 F, 6 mp/h SE, 83% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 58 F, 17 mp/h NNE, 67% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 59 F, 17 mp/h NE, 77% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 60 F, 11 mp/h NNE, 79% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (combination of SG: OTT & SG: APP)
- Stokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Total (Short & “Easy” Courses)
- Strokes Gained: Par 4
- Driving Accuracy
- Birdie or Better %
- Greens in Regulation %
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020: Ryan Streb (-19)*
- Price: 350-1
- 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19)*
- Price: 200-1
- 2018: Charles Howell (-19)*
- Price: 50-1
- 2017: Austin Cook (-21)
- Price: 90-1
- 2016: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)*
- Price: 250-1
*denotes playoff win
Picks (Outright):
- Russell Henley +3100 – DraftKings
- Risk 0.26 to win 8.06 Units
Henley comes into this tournament as a great fit for the course and in great form. He ranks #1 in SG: Approach, #65 SG: Around the Green, and 8th in Greens in Regulation %. His recent performances include a T7 in the Houston Open, T56 in the WWT Championship, T25 in the CJ Cup, and T21 in the Shriners. Henley also has a +0.97 Strokes Gained on the Seaside Course in his 19 rounds played. He’s 23rd in Birdie Average, 36th in Par 4 Scoring, and 28th in Birdie or Better %. Henley is a local and played at UGA which has historically been a positive trend at this event. He has three Top 10’s in his seven appearances at the RSM Classic.
- Brendon Todd +6000 – Caesars
- Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Brendon Todd is another guy who played at UGA and comes into this event in great form. He ranks 4th in SG: Putting, 32nd in SG: Total, and 75th in SG: Tee to Green. Todd finished 4th in this event in 2019 and has gained +0.16 Strokes on the Seaside course. He’s coming off a T11 at the Houston Open and set’s up nice to make a run here. His skillset really aligns with what’s needed to win here so he should have some success.
- Joel Dahmen +6600 – Caesars
- Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Dahmen has played well as of late and ranks 11th in SG: Approach, 64th in SG: Putting, and 67th in SG: Off the Tee. Another key stat for this event that Dahmen ranks well in is Greens in Regulation % (49th). He’s 33rd in Birdie Average and 41st in Birdie or Better %. Last week he finished T5 in the Houston Open and has been T51 or better in all of his events this year.
- Chris Kirk +7000 – FanDuel
- Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Kirk won the RSM Classic back in 2013 and I think he can join Streb as the only two time winners of this event. He’s a UGA Bulldog who’s familiar with the area and feels comfortable on the course gaining +1.18 Total Strokes last year. He didn’t play in the Houston Open last week but played well in his four other events this year placing well in all of them. Through those four events he ranks 17th in SG: Total, 30th in SG: Tee to Green, 56th in SG: Around the Green, and 60th in SG: Putting. He’s in great form and looks to have a shot at another RSM Classic victory.
- Patrick Rodgers +9000 – FanDuel
- Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Rodger’s ranks 9th in SG: Total, 11th in SG: Putting, 34th in SG: Tee to Green, and 51st in SG: Around the Green. The only area of concern for him is his approach numbers. Despite not ranking well in SG: Approach, he does have a fantastic GIR % and Scoring Average. He’s a hit or miss golfer alternating between missing the cut and finishing Top 10 in his four events this year. As stated before he’s very hit or miss, the last two years he’s missed the cut the RSM Classic but before that he finished 2nd and 10th.
- Denny McCarthy +13000 – DraftKings
- Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Denny McCarthy is in great form coming into this event with a T11, T15, and T39 in his last three tournaments. His SG: Approach number’s worry me a bit as he ranks 126th but does have a great Greens in Regulation %. The good news is his SG: Approach numbers were better than his average in the Houston Open which is encouraging. He also excels around the green and with putting so I’m hoping those can make up for it.
- Chad Ramey +13000 – DraftKings
- Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units
Ramey’s a Mississippi native who went to Mississippi State and played this course several times during his college career. He currently ranks 13 in SG: Approach and 60th in Greens in Regulation %. His approach game has always been a strength for him and will be needed given the predicted winds. Ramey also ranks highly in Par 4 scoring which has correlated to success in this event. Up until the Houston Open where he missed the cut, he had back to back Top 20 finishes.
- Hank Lebioda +15000 – DraftKings
- Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
Lebioda is a Florida native who went to Florida State so he’s familiar with the course. Historically players from the Southern States have dominated this event so I’m hoping that trend continues. He ranks 32nd in SG: Approach and 17th in SG: Putting. He putted well last week at the Houston Open gaining +1.62 Strokes so if his putter can stay hot, he should do well here.
- Nick Hardy +17000 – DraftKings
- Risk 0.05 to win 8.50 Units
Nick Hardy ranks very highly in two key categories this week as is one of my favorite plays. He’s 15th in SG: Approach the Green and 12th in SG: Tee to Green. He struggled in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship missing the cut but had two solid finishes before that (T26, T36).
- Stephan Jaeger +17000 – FanDuel
- Risk 0.05 to win 8.50 Units
Jaegar won the Korn Ferry Tour last year earning his PGA Tour Card. So far this year he has played in six events alternating between playing very well and missing the cut. He’s gone T35, CUT, T20, CUT, T26, CUT. If the pattern continues, it doesn’t bode well for us as he’s on pace to miss the cut. He ranks 5th in SG: Around the Green, 65th in SG: Putting, and 156 in SG: Approach. He’s along shot this week for a reason but does have a shot to win given his Par 3 and 4 scoring. Jaeger also gaining +0.16 Strokes on the Seaside course.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.08 Units
Picks (Top 20)
- Scottie Scheffler (+105) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
- Seamus Power (+280) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.4 Units
- Matthew NeSmith (+600) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.20 to win 1.2 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.70 Units
Picks (Top Australian):
- Cameron Smith (+145) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.73 Units
Cameron Smith comes into this week as one of the betting favorites. He’s one of six Australian in this tournament but is the best fit for this course. Smith is 14th in SG: Approach, 18th in SG: Putting, and 53rd in Greens in Regulation %. The only other contender is Adam Scott however, I like Smith’s recent form a little better.
Total Risk on Top Australian: 0.50 Units
Total Risk on RSM Classic: 3.28 Units
Picks (Future/ Prop):
- RSM Classic Playoff – YES (+333) – Bet365
As I mentioned before, this tournament has ended in a playoff the past three years. It also goes back further than that as the past four out of five winners have been decided in a playoff. For a small wager, I’ll hope this trend continues. This bet is on the side and will not count towards this weeks card either way.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
