San Diego State travels to Colorado State tonight as a 2 point favorite. I am recommending a play tonight with San Diego State as a short road favorite. From purely a matchup standpoint, much of Colorado State’s offensive production comes from 2 pt baskets down low from Junior, 6-11 Center, Nico Carvacho. He is on the floor 78% over the course of the season and 84% recently. Much of their offense runs through either he or JD Paige.
SDSU deploys two 5’s, standing at 6-9 and 6-11 with big frames who share time 65/30. Additionally, their top rebounder, Jalen McDaniels, typically plays the 4 and matches up athletically and height wise (standing at 6-10). SDSU wins the both the offensive and defensive rebound battle (OFF Rebound Rank: SDSU/118, CSU/293) in stat comparisons here and there is a significant advantage in defensive efficiency. More bodies in the post who taller than an opponents’ bodies, coupled with a significant offensive rebound advantage, leads to second chance points with high efficiency FG% numbers. CSU ranks 300th in defensive FG% efficiency, and SDSU ranks 135th in offensive FG efficiency.
I look for SDSU to attempt to get Carvacho in foul trouble early, and if they can, they have neutralized Colorado State’s primary source of offensive production. That leaves JD Paige, their only other double digit scorer, to pick up the pieces. I don’t think that can get the job done tonight where SDSU has two guards, Watson and Hemsley, who both average double digits and match up well against Paige. Carvacho’s presence is key for Colorado State, but SDSU wins the average height comparison, ranked 59th in the country compared to 241st for CSU.
When I looked at my blended power rating lines for this matchup, I have SDSU -4.8 tonight. Colorado State ranks 301st in defensive efficiency and with 3 guys scoring double digits for SDSU, I don’t see how CSU can win here tonight, and the short number tells me there is value enough to make a play.
PLAY: SDSU -2
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