Sanderson Farms Championship – Preview & Picks

The United States remains in control of the President’s Cup knocking off the International team 17.5 – 12.5. In terms of storylines, there were so many great moments. Tom Kim rose to the occasion and looks to become a budding superstar. Jordan Spieth took all five of his matches becoming the first person to do so since Jim Furyk in 2011. Max Homa also went undefeated winning all four of his matches. In terms of the bad, let’s talk about Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 1 struggled in his debut winning just half a point. In his singles match on Sunday, he lost to Sebastian Munoz, currently ranked 64th. The Canadians, Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners, also struggled for the International team with them both failing to record a single point.

Now onto the Sanderson Farms, a tournament that recently became a full-status event. It’s been held at the Country Club of Jackson since 2014. Historically you need to go low if you want to win this as seen by Sam Burns last year posting a 22 under par. While it isn’t the best of fields, it does provide the opportunity to find some diamonds in the rough.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: September 29th, 2022 – October 2nd, 2022
• Location: Jackson, Mississippi, USA
• Course: The Country Club of Jackson
• Course Type: Resort
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,461 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion bermudagrass .110”
• Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .450”
• Rough: 419 bermudagrass / Zeon zoysia 2”
• Bunkers: 56
• Water Hazards:7 (In-Play 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $7,900,000 /$1,422,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2021: 69.87 (-2.13), Rank 45 of 50
  • 2020: 71.08 (-0.92), Rank 32 of 51
  • 2019: 70.90 (-1.10), Rank 26 of 41
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2021: -5
  • 2020: -3
  • 2019: -3

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, September 29th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 3:30 PM – 6:30 PM
• Round 2: Friday, September 30th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 3:30 PM – 6:30 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, October 1st, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 4, Sunday, October 2nd, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 66 F, 12 mp/h NNE, 45% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Sunny 69 F, 11 mp/h NNE, 47% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Sunny 70 F, 11 mp/h NNW, 49% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Sunny 72 F, 9 mp/h NNW, 52% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914 but was moved to its current location in 1962. The course was redesigned from 2007 to 2008 by John Fought and Mike Gogel. During this renovation, the course was lengthened and several greens were adjusted.

In 2014, the Country Club of Jackson officially became the new home for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Starting in the 2019-20 season, this tournament was upgraded to a full status event and moved to late September.

72-Hole Record (CC of Jackson): 266, Sam Burns (2021)

18-Hole Record (CC of Jackson): 62, Roberto Castro (1st round, 2015).

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Dogwood-Azalea course at the Country Club of Jackson was designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel. “Dogwood” refers to the front nine and “Azalea” refers to the back nine. It is a Par 72 that plays 7,461 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. In terms of the rough, it’s some of the least penal on Tour. Water comes into play on five holes but mainly on the Par 3’s.

The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 223 yards. Last year, holes No. 7 and No. 10 were the only two to have a scoring average over par.

No. 10 is the longest of the Par 3’s playing just over 220 yards. Off the tee, there doesn’t appear to be many challenges. It’s slightly downhill with bunkers guarding the front right and left. However, the difficulty of this hole all depends on one thing, the pin placement.

The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 15 is the shortest listed at 330 with the longest being No. 18, just over 500 yards.

No. 16 is the signature hole on this course. It’s a challenging par 4 that can be attacked in a variety of ways. Players chose to take it up the left or right side with each option having its advantages and disadvantages. On their approach shot, they’ll face a creek along the left side of the green with bunkers guarding the right. Last year, this was the most difficult Par 4 on the course with a scoring average of 4.163.

The four Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. Only one of these Par 5’s is over 600 yards (No. 5). In terms of difficulty, No. 5 is the hardest but still had a scoring average below par like the others.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
• Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

• Sam Burns (+1100), is the favorite for this week’s event and will look to defend his title from last season. This event sparked a career year for him where he would go on to win two other events. He’s the only American team member from the President’s Cup that’s in the field for this week. At Quail Hollow, he finished with only a point going 0-3-2 in his five matches. Outside of the President’s Cup, we last saw him compete at East Lake where he would finish 24th.
• Sahith Theegala (+2000) is coming off a strong performance at the Fortinet Championship finishing T6. Last year in the Sanderson Farms Championship he finished T8.
• Russel Henley (+2500) has only played in this event twice before finishing T14 in 2016 and T54 in 2019. His last start on Tour was at the BMW Championship where he finished T35 failing to qualify for East Lake.
• JT Poston (+2700) had a great end of the year winning the John Deere Classic and finishing T35 or better in his last five starts. At the TOUR Championship, he played well finishing T15. He missed the cut at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship but finished T3 in 2020.
• Denny McCarthy (+2900) has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. His last start on Tour was at the Fortinet Championship where he finished T25.

 

Previous Winners in the field; Sam Burns (’21), Sebastian Munoz (’19), Cameron Champ (’18), Ryan Armour (’17), Cody Gribble (’16), Peter Malnati (’15), Nick Taylor (’14), Scott Stallings (’12), and Chris Kirk (’11).

Notable Withdraws: Sebastian Munoz, Cameron Champ, Danny Lee

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Denny McCarthy (+2900): MC/T7/T18/6/T17
• Henrik Norlander (+10000): T72/T39/MC/T4/T4
• CT Pan (+15000): MC/T12/T11
• William McGirt (+25000): T27/T5/T26/T7/T2/T25/MC/T17

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Sepp Straka (+5000): MC/MC/MC/MC
• Brendon Todd (+6600): T72/T14/MC/MC/MC/MC
• Kramer Hickok (+15000): MC/MC/MC/MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2021: Sam Burns (-22)
  • Price: 16-1
• 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
  • Price: 70-1
• 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
  • Price: 66-1
• 2018: Cameron Champ (-21)
  • Price: 66-1
• 2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
  • Price: 125-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Davis Riley (+4000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Thomas Detry (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Thomas Detry was able to secure his PGA Tour card with a top 25 finish in the Korn Ferry Tour standings last month. In his first Tour event of the season, he played well finishing T12 at the Fortinet Championship. Dating back to last season, he’s finished inside the top 40 in every PGA Tour event he competed in (five). He ranks well in the key categories this week and with his putting trending in the right direction, he has a shot.

• Taylor Moore (+5000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Harris English (+5000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Trey Mullinax (+5000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Trey Mullinax is an Alabama native and should have some support this week from the fans. In his first start this year, he struggled missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship. The main reason is his play on the green. Last year at the Country Club of Jackson, he finished T4. In terms of a course fit, Mullinax ranks near the top. The main issue for him has been his putting. While he’s struggled on most surfaces, he seems to enjoy the champion bermudagrass. He gained the most strokes putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship out of every tournament he played in last year. Given the improvements in his short game, if he can putt well again, he should do well.

• Davis Thompson (+13000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units

• Joseph Bramlett (+13000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.07 to win 9.10 Units

• Sam Ryder (+30000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.03 to win 9.00 Units

Sam Ryder is my long shot of the week. In terms of course history, he hasn’t faired well missing the cut in four of his five appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. However, last year was the first time he did make it and would go on to finish T51. Two weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship, he missed the cut losing a lot of strokes around the green. Ryder can go low and does favor bermudagrass as seen in his strokes gained.  In terms of his ability, the strong points of his game are his approach play, and putting. He’s also not long off the tee but is very accurate. If he’s able to figure out his tee game, I think he can compete given his iron and green play.

Just Missed: Taylor Montgomery (+3000), Scott Stallings (+3000)

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Sahith Theegala (+130) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Sahith Theegala has been trending towards his first career PGA Tour victory for a while now. He nearly closed out the Travelers Championship and finished T6 last week at the Fortinet Championship. Theegala has played in the Sanderson Farms once before where he finished T8. He shot three sub-70 rounds before struggling on Sunday posting a 71. At that event, he gained strokes in every category besides Around the Green. In these “birdie-fest” events, Theegala is a great fit ranking 1st in Birdie or Better %.

• Denny McCarthy (+180) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units

Denny McCarthy enters the Sanderson Farms Championship off a T25 finish at Silverado Resort & Spa (Fortinet Championship). He’s been playing well as of late finishing last year’s season with a T20 at the FedEx St Jude Championship and a T28 at the BMW Championship. In terms of course history, he’s a match as he’s finished inside the top-20 in each of his last four appearances here. He’s above average in terms of distance off the tee which gives him an advantage on this long course. If we look at his strokes gained stats at the Country Club of Jackson he’s done well in every category. His approach play can be worrisome at times with the larger greens he’s shown he can have success here.

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Byeong-Hun An (+120) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Byeong-Hun An is coming off a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship gaining strokes in every category besides approach. He was on the PGA Tour in 2016 and struggled but after grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, An was able to secure his PGA Tour card for this year. An has competed at the Sanderson Farms Championship twice before, once in 2019 where he finished T4, and again in 2020 where he, unfortunately, missed the cut. Off the tee, he can pound the ball and while his accuracy is an issue, there’s room to miss on this course. His approach play can also be worry some at times but as we saw last week the rest of his game can make up for it. With some newfound momentum and course familiarity, he seems like a great fit.

• Justin Lower (+125) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

After a T36 finish at the Wyndham Championship and some help from the LIV Tour defectors, he moved into the top-125 of the FedEx Cup Standings earning his fully exempt 2022-23 PGA Tour status. Lower started off the season strong with a T4 finish at the Fortinet Championship. Starting the final round he had a 1-shot lead but played himself out of contention on Sunday. He gained strokes in every category specifically putting and off the tee. This will be his first time playing in this event but based off his play, he should be a great fit. As we know, good drives and putting are crucial this week, both areas he excels at. In his last start on Champion Bermudagrass (Wyndham Championship), Lower ranked 24th in the field in strokes gained putting. While he isn’t necessarily long off the tee, he makes up for it in accuracy. He’s finished inside the top-40 in five of his last six starts on Tour and looks to be poised to do so again here.

Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the Sanderson Farms Championship: 5.03 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.