Sanderson Farms Championship – Preview & Picks

The Europeans defeated the Americans in the Ryder Cup 16.5 to 11.5. They have now won the last seven Ryder Cups hosted on European solid.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship is the second event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.

Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.

Ludvig Aberg is the only player in the field at the Sanderson Farms Championship who
competed at last week’s Ryder Cup. He went 2-2-0 for Europe and was part of the record-setting 9 and 7 victory with partner Viktor Hovland in Foursomes over Brooks Koepka and Scottie Scheffler. Aberg has ensured PGA TOUR status for 2024 via PGA TOUR U.

There are a few notable sponsor exemptions this week including Fred Biondi, the 2023 NCAA champion, and Sam Bennett, the 2022 U.S. Amateur champion. Biondi will be making his second start on the PGA Tour after he missed the cut at the Fortinet Championship. Bennett was the low amateur at this year’s Masters Tournament.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: October 5th, 2023 – October 8th, 2023
• Location: Jackson, Mississippi, United States
• Course: The Country Club of Jackson
• Course Type: Resort
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,461 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion bermudagrass .110”
• Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .450”
• Rough: 419 bermudagrass / Zeon zoysia 2”
• Bunkers: 56
• Water Hazard(s): 7 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,200,000/ $1,476,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Holes 18, 18, 10, 10
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 71.15 (-0.85), Rank 29 of 50
  • 2021: 69.87 (-2.13), Rank 45 of 50
  • 2020: 71.08 (-0.92), Rank 32 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -2
  • 2021: -5
  • 2020: -3

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, October 5th, 2023
  • ESPN+ – 8:30 AM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, October 6th, 2023
  • ESPN+ – 8:30 AM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, October 7th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, October 8th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Mostly Cloudy 88 F, 6 mp/h SSE, 54% Humidity, 6% Chance of Rain
• Friday: AM Showers 84 F, 10 mp/h NNW, 59% Humidity, 37% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 12 mp/h N, 39% Humidity, 9% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 74 F, 8 mp/h N, 38% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914 but was moved to its current location in 1962. The course was redesigned from 2007 to 2008 by John Fought and Mike Gogel. During this renovation, the course was lengthened and several greens were adjusted.

In 2014, the Country Club of Jackson officially became the new home for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Starting in the 2019-20 season, this tournament was upgraded to a full-status event and moved to late September.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 2, Dwight Nevil (1973, 1974), Brian Henninger (1994, 1999), Fred Funk (1998, 2004)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 266, Sam Burns (2021)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 62, Roberto Castro (first round, 2015)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Dogwood-Azalea course at the Country Club of Jackson was designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel. “Dogwood” refers to the front nine and “Azalea” refers to the back nine. It is a Par 72 that plays 7,461 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. In terms of the rough, it’s some of the least penal on Tour. Water comes into play on five holes but mainly on the Par 3’s.

This is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average, we should see another winner finish around -20.

The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 223 yards. Last year, hole No. 13 was the only par 3 to have a scoring average under par.

No. 7, 214 yards, Par 3: Players have a fairly straightforward long iron into this green. However a miss long or right can make for a difficult up and down. A par on this hole is a good score and it had a scoring average over par last year.

No. 13, 168 yards, Par 3: While this is the shortest hole on the course, swirling winds come into play and can knock a high iron down. The green is protected by two front bunkers and one hidden over the left side.

There are ten Par 4’s at the Country Club of Jackson with the majority (six) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the two toughest Par 4’s last year were No. 6 (+0.185) and No. 16 (+0.173).

No. 8, 403 yards, Par 4: Is a dog-leg left where an accurate tee shot is crucial. Since it’s only 400 yards, most players will club down here and try to avoid the creek runs along the hole on the left side. On a player’s approach shot, they’ll have to navigate the two bunkers that protect the green in the front.

No. 16, 479 yards, Par 4: This is the signature hole on the course and will require two demanding shots. A swamp runs along the entire left side of the hole and crosses the fairway approximately 80 yards from the hole. If players choose the “bailout” option trees come into play and are forced to hit towards the water on their approach. In addition to the swamp on the left, the green is protected by a large bunker on the right.

There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2022. No. 14 was the easiest par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.308 below par. Hole No. 5, was the toughest Par 5 last year due to it being the only Par 5 that measures over 600 yards.

No. 5, 612 yards, Par 5: This is the longest hole on the course and the toughest of the Par 5’s. Off the tee, players will try to navigate their ball between two fairway bunkers putting them in position to try and go for it in two. If they do try and reach the green in two, they cannot miss short-left as a pond comes into play. The green itself is surrounded by multiple bunkers as well.

No. 14, 584 yards, Par 5: Players will need an accurate tee shot off the tee. The left side is woodlands, while on the right side, trees can come into play. Even if they do find the fairway, they can end up in one of the fairway bunkers. On their approach shot, they’ll have to avoid the two front bunkers.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Birdies or Better
• Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 (x6)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
• Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Only two of the world’s top fifty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Ludvig Aberg (+1000) will make his Sanderson Farms Championship. He’s the only player in the field that competed at last week’s Ryder Cup. Before that, he played three events on the DP World Tour where he finished T10 at the BMW PGA Championship, first at the Omega European Masters, and T4 at the D+D Real Czech Masters. He’s also made the cut in six of seven PGA TOUR events since turning pro.

Eric Cole (+2000) missed the cut in his Sanderson Farms debut last year. After a slow start last year where he missed the cut in his first four starts, he’s in better form with his last missed cut coming at the Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2023). Cole had a strong showing in his last start where he placed 4th at the Fortinent Championship. Before that, he finished T31 or better in four consecutive events.

Keith Mitchell (+2200) will make his fourth appearance at the Sanderson Farms Championship having missed the cut in each of the three prior trips to the Country Club of Jackson. Mitchell is coming off a T43 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Invitational and a T5 finish at the 3M Open. Before that, he missed the cut in two straight events.

Stephan Jaeger (+2200) will make his seventh appearance at the Sanderson Farms Championship. His best finish out of the six times was in 2018 where he finished T14. Jaeger has been playing some good golf lately with four top-20 finishes in his last seven starts. He’s also not missed a cut since the RBC Heritage in April.

Emiliano Grillo (+2500) will make his fifth appearance at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He had his best outing at the Country Club of Jackson last year where he finished T5. Grillo finally broke through and captured his first PGA Tour victory earlier this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He advanced to the TOUR Championship for the second time in his career and first since he won the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in 2016.  Emiliano enters this tournament in great form having not finished outside the top 31 in each of his last five events. During that span, he also had two top-10 finishes as well.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Mackenzie Hughes (’22), Cameron Champ (’18), Ryan Armour (’17), Cody Gribble (’16), Peter Malnati (’15), Scott Stallings (’12)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Nicolai Hojgaard, Joseph Bramlett, Grayson Murray, Aaron Baddeley

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Facts & Figures:

• Six of the last nine winners at the Sanderson Farms Championship have been first-time TOUR winners.

 

Horses for Courses:

	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Cameron Champ				T28	1
Nick Hardy	T5	T26
Mackenzie Hughes	1	T35
Hayden Buckley	T19	T4			T63
C.T. Pan	T67	T11	T12
Henrik Norlander	T24	T4	T4	MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
David Lipsky	MC	MC
Martin Trainer	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Scott Harrington	MC		MC	MC
Keith Mitchell		MC	MC
Matthias Schwab	MC	MC	MC
Harry Higgs	MC			MC
Max McGreevy	MC	MC
Kramer Hickok	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Zac Blair	MC		MC	MC
Kevin Tway	MC	MC	MC
Jason Dufner	MC		MC	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
  • Price: 110-1
• 2021: Sam Burns (-22)
  • Price: 16-1
• 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
  • Price: 70-1
• 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
  • Price: 66-1
• 2018: Cameron Champ (-21)
  • Price: 66-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Mackenzie Hughes
  • T25 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
  • T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T46 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)

• 2021: Sam Burns
  • T18 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • 8 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T21 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T2 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • T76 – The Open Championship (MAJ)

• 2020: Sergio Garcia
  • MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • MC – Safeway Open (MAJ)
  • T66 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
  • MC – PGA Championship (PGA)
  • T35 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)

• 2019: Sebastian Munoz
  • T7 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
  • T43 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T48 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
  • 11 – Barracuda Championship (PGA)
  • T9 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)

• 2018: Cameron Champ
  • T25 – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • MC – Web.com Tour Championship (KFT)
  • T33 – Albertsons Boise Open (KFT)
  • T16 – DAP Championship (KFT)
  • T30 – Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship (KFT)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2022: Mackenzie Hughes
  • 2021 – T35
  • 2016 – T26

• 2021: Sam Burns
  • 2020 – MC
  • 2019 – T45
  • 2018 – T3
  • 2017 – T43

• 2020: Sergio Garcia
  • Debut at Event

• 2019: Sebastian Munoz
  • 2018 – T50
  • 2016 – T35

• 2018: Cameron Champ
  • Debut at Event

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Eric Cole (+2000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

• Adam Svensson (+4000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Mark Hubbard (+5000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Sam Ryder (+5000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Erik van Rooyen (+11000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.08 to win 8.80 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Alex Smalley (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

• Callum Tarren (+188) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.88 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Sanderson Farms Championship: 3.00 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.