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Tough loss last night. St. Louis had a 3 run lead cut to 1 twice in the last 3 innings of the game.
Saturday MLB 7/25
Braves at Mets 4:10 est
Fried vs Matz
Pick: Mets +0.5 (-136) First 5 Small
Or
Mets (+102) First 5 Small (Official Pick)
Choose 1 based on your situation. You will win if game is tied after 5 innings if you go with +0.5, it will push if game is tied after 5 innings if you go with money line +102.
Not a great number on the run line here but there is an edge in the numbers for the Mets in this pitching match up. Also, I always wager to win to keep bet amounts consistent. I am not necessarily betting $136 because this run line is -136. I use a set amount based on the grade of the pick, regardless of the line.
-Fried has allowed 8 runs combined in last 2 starts, 10 IP at Mets
-Fried 5.30 ERA last 7 starts
-Fried 4.92 ERA in road games last season
-Right hand hitters hit .281 vs Fried last season
-Matz allowed 2 ER in last 3 starts, 18 innings vs Braves
-Matz 2.31 ERA at home last season
-Matz 3.47 ERA career at Citi Field.
-Mets are 13-4 last 17 home starts by Matz
-Mets have won last 4 home games vs Braves
I initially had Toronto +0.5 First 5 vs Tampa. I like Shoemaker but He’s had a little trouble on the road, not horrible but hittable and is coming back from a long lay off due to injury. Yarbrough is bad indoors and in day games. Gonna pass and see how Shoemaker looks in his return.
Leaving the Reds run line alone as well. -1.5 is -136. I won’t bet run line favorites at -1.5 normally unless it is at least EVEN money. Reds do have good numbers against Nova. I would like to see how Castillo starts as well for the Reds. He did not finish strong for Cincinnati at the end of last season.
Reds, Phillies and Indians might be your best money line teams based on pitching but I don’t necessarily trust Philadelphia.
Just the Mets First 5 play for me today as we see how these teams come out of the gate to start the season.
