To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(1u): Florida 1H -5 vs Vanderbilt–2:30 PM CT
Vanderbilt pulled off the upset over #1 Tennessee earlier in the week… cool. I don’t think we’re getting back-to-back hero performances out of a pretty talentless Commodores team.
Florida has been through the ringer over the last 2 weeks, having to play at #5 Kansas State, vs #2 Tennessee(won outright), @ Kentucky, and @ #3 Alabama. The Gators are going to be licking their chops facing KenPom’s 179th ranked defense today after facing borderline elite teams across each of their past 4 games. Vanderbilt will get bailed out by teams who settle for 3’s, but that is not the makeup of this Florida team. The Commodores also struggle to force turnovers(332nd in TO’s forced), while Florida turns the ball over just 11 times per game(70th).
Vanderbilt is another team that is far more aggressive from 3 than they should be. This team shoots just 32.4% from deep, yet they hack up the 42nd most 3’s in CBB. Say what you want about Florida’s offense, but this is clearly a Top 10 defense in CBB that 9th in 2pt defense.
I love this spot for Florida, and I hate it just as much for Vandy. Rather than trust Florida to win by double digits(not their role), I’ll isolate this in the 1H. Water finds it’s level in Gainesville today.
*CBB(1u): Texas Tech PK vs Kansas State–6 PM CT
I’m of the belief that Texas Tech would probably be at least .500 in any other Power 5 conference but the Big12. In what other conference would a 1-10 team be a coin-flip vs the #12 team in the country?
Jerome Tang has done a phenomenal job with K-State this year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t weaknesses to this Kansas State team. Kansas State is very mediocre in their 2pt offense(143rd in CBB) and relies strictly on the playmaking ability of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell to be productive. Additionally, the Wildcats are sloppy with the basketball, turning the ball over nearly 13.5 times per game(291st in CBB). Texas Tech’s main strength defensively is forcing turnovers, and they are solid at defending both the 2 and 3.
Texas Tech does a better job of getting easy buckets inside(49th in 2pt FG%) and will hold an advantage on the boards at the offensive end. Kansas State will have an opportunity to force TO’s here, but all els being equal, I think the home team shows a bit more poise in this matchup.
I’ve been hesitant to fade K-State lately given their resurgence on the defensive end over the last few weeks. With that said, I think Texas Tech is deep enough into conference play where some of these narrow losses are going to start turning into wins. The oddsmakers wouldn’t put out this line at a PK(knowing everybody will unload on KST) if they didn’t feel damn good about the Red Raiders’ chances to win.
