This total is up a half point from it’s 45 open. Colts are 5-0 O/U vs winning teams this season averaging 49 points in those games. Those opponents may have had more explosive offenses but we have seen New England can put up points.
Both teams want to run the ball and both are in the top 10 (NE-9th and IND-2nd in Rush Yds/ game). However, both are mid tier in defending the run (NE-18th, IND-16th rush yds against/ game). Indy’s defense isn’t what it was last year. I don’t see them shutting out the Pats altogether here. The Patriots have also went over the last 3 times they have allowed teams to rush over 110 yards, which we know the Colts are capable of as they average over 150 yds/game.
This game should be a get up spot for the Colts. We’ve seen them blow leads to good teams before and it is difficult to bet against Bill Belichek, no doubt. The Colts need this one for playoff position trailing the Titans in their division. Indy is also tied with the Vikings as the best 1H ATS squad at 10-3. As square as it sounds, I’ll lay the points with the fav in the first half and take the over in this standalone primetime game.
312 IND 1H-1/2*(-105)
IND OV 45 1/2* (-110)
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