Sentry Tournament of Champions – Preview & Picks

January 3, 2022

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The 2022 PGA Tour season is underway with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. By no means is this a major tournament or highlight of the PGA Tour but it’s still golf. This is an invite only event reserved for players who have won an event on Tour since the previous years tournament.

This year’s field features 39 PGA Tour winners from last season that include eight of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking, and eight of the top 10 in the current 2021-22 FedExCup standings. In addition to those golfers, it also features 10 first-time winners. The only non-winner of a PGA Tour event is Xander Schauffele who earned an exemption through his win at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

There’s several storylines coming into this year event and it starts with Phil Mickelson who won the PGA Championship last year at 50 years old. This will be the first time he competes in this event in 21 years.

The World Number 1 Ranking is also at stake this weekend. Jon Rahm, who will compete in this first event since the Fortinet Championship will look to hold off budding superstar Collin Morikawa who currently ranks 2nd.

This is always a fun event to watch and it features plenty of birdies with a gorgeous Hawaii backdrop. Now let’s breakdown the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions as we look to start the year off on a good note!

Notable Withdraws: Rory McIlroy

Tournament Information:

Dates: January 6th, 2022- January 9th, 2022
Location: Kapalua, Hawaii, United States
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Course Type: Coastal/ Parkland
Par: 73 (3x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,596 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 39 Players | No Cut
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 10.0 feet (Slow)
Purse: $8,200,000 / Winner $1.476 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 93
Water Hazards: 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
Average Green Size: 8,722 sq. ft. (Large)
Scoring Average:
- 2021: 69.32 (-3.68)

Course/ Tournament History:

The tournament was originally founded in 1953 and continues to be restricted to golfers who have won a tournament on tour during the previous calendar year.

The Sentry Tournament of Champions has been held during the first week of January since 1999. It was that year that the event was moved to its current location at the Kapalua Resort.

This event has undergone several different title sponsors and venues in addition to format changes. From 2012-2015 it used a Friday-Monday format in order to not compete against the NFL schedule.

The 2022 Event will feature it’s largest prize pool ever, and will increase the winners share to $1.476 Million from last years $1.340 Million.

Justin Thomas (2017, 2020) is the only two time winner who will be competing in this years tournament. Other previous winners include Jordan Spieth (2016), Patrick Reed (2015), Xander Schauffele (2019), and last years champion Harris English.

Dustin Johnson has also won this event twice (2013, 2018) but will not play this year as he failed to capture a win on tour last season.

Jack Nicklaus holds the record for the most wins at this event with 5 (1963, 2964, 1971, 1973, and 1977).

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Plantation Course at Kapalua is arguably one of the most gorgeous tracks on the PGA Tour. It sits on the shoes of Maui offering stunning views on most holes.

That being said, it’s also one of the easiest courses on Tour as seen by the previous year’s scoring averages. This event is what most touts like to call a “birdie-fest” as the winning scores have all been around -20 or below. The only outlier came back in 2020 where Justin Thomas won this tournament with a -14. In 2020, the winds did play more of a factor than what we’re supposed to see this weekend, so I’m betting we see a winning score around what were used to.

The Plantation Course is the only Par 73 we’ll see on Tour all year and is a bombers paradise playing roughly 7,600 yards. The course features 5 Par 5’s all of which play over 525 yards with the 18th playing an astounding 677 yards. Despite this being one of the longer courses on tour, the elevation does have to be accounted for as the 18th is still reachable in two for some players.

The main defense of the course is obviously the winds, as it sits on the coast line but, also the elevation changes. This course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour which can cause blind approach shots.

During the 2019/2020 renovation the course underwent a complete renovation affecting every aspect of it. The tee boxes were moved back, bunkers were repositioned, and most greens were recontoured. Despite all these changes to make the course more difficult, Harris English still went out and shot a -25 last year to win it. English’s path to victory last year was through his putting where he gained an outstanding 6.85 Stokes.

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Course Architect: Bill Coore/ Ben Crenshaw (1991)
Renovations: Coore/ Crenshaw (2019/2020)
Comparable Courses:
- Augusta National (Masters)
- Riviera
- Nine Bridges

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, January 6th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM ET

Round 2: Friday, January 7th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM ET

Round 3: Saturday, January 8th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM ET

Round 4: Sunday, January 9th, 2021
- NBC – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET

Weather:

Thursday: Mostly Sunny 74 F, 12 mp/h NE, 75% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Friday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 8 mp/h NNW, 71% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Sunny 74 F, 9 mp/h N, 69% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Sunny 75 F, 8 mp/h WNW, 66% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Stokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Greens in Regulation %
Scrambling %
Driving Distance
Par 5 Scoring

Trends (s/o to @PGASplits101):

The 8 Players who conform to every trend:

Bryson Dechambeau, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jordan Speith, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Harris English

Live Bet Insight:

The eventual winner of the tournament has been 5th or better after Day 1 since 2011. The only outlier was Xander Schauffele back in 2019, who was 19th after the first day.
Since 2011, the leader heading into the final day has won the event 7 out of 11 times.

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

2021: Harris English (-25)
- Price: 33-1
2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
- Price: 11-2
2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
- Price: 22-1
2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
- Price: 15-2
2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
- Price: 22-1

Picks (Outright):

Bryson Dechambeau (+1200) – DraftKings
- Risk: 0.67 to win 8.04 Units

It certainly was the Summer of Bryson Dechambeau. After essentially becoming the “villain” on the PGA Tour last year, he won the hearts of American back during the Ryder Cup.

We haven’t seen him in a Professional golf event since last season so the only real recent form comes from The Match V where he got smoked by Brooks Koepka.

Bryson competed in this event back in 2021 and finished 7th. The area of his game that held him back was his putting, which remains a constant struggle for him. He lost strokes putting every day besides on Sunday. To make matters worse he’ll be without a detailed greens book and has struggled in events where he isn’t allowed to use them, i.e. The Masters.

We all know he’s the longest hitter and tour and the large fairways at Kapalua should offer him some relief if his accuracy is an issue this week. The distance shouldn’t be an issue either and will give him a slight advantage on all of the Par 5’s in terms of approach shots.

I’m not in love with the price but if he’s on his game, it’s his tournament to win. This could be the year of Bryson…

Jordan Spieth (+2200) – Draftkings
- Price: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

The last time Spieth teed it up at Kapalua was back in 2018 where he finished 9th. In every event he has played here (2014,2016,2017,2018) he has finished inside the Top 10.

Most recently Spieth is coming off a horrendous performance at the Hero World Challenge where he finished dead last. However, he did just have a kid a few days before so I’m sure golf wasn’t the first thing on his mind.

Historically he’s played great here gaining the most strokes at Kapalua in the field. He should benefit from the increased fairway width as well just like Bryson. While his recent form is a concern, I’m choosing to go with the previous results as more of an indicator of his performance here.

Jason Kokrak (+4100) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units

Several other books have already shifted Kokrak to 35-1 and even as low as 22-1 on BETMGM. So with FanDuel offering this number of 41-1, I’ll gladly take it. Jason Kokrak captured two wins on Tour during the 2021 Season with his most recent win coming in November at the HPE Houston Open.

Most recently he won the QBE Shootout with Kevin Na where they barely edged out Billy Horschel and Sam Burns. Kokrak and Na caught fire on the back nine and birdied every hole besides one to capture the title.

Jason Kokrak has only played in this event once before and that was last year where he finished 35th. However, he seems to be in great form and fits the course fairly well in several key statistics. He has the ability distance wise off the tee and has been great with his putter. If he can follow the Harris English path to victory here, which is through putting, I think he has a shot.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units

Picks (Top 10):