A 2-2 night in MLB brings my overall record to 156-143-6, +6.62u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays here on Thursday before the football weekend takes center stage. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rays ML(+115) @ Blue Jays–2:07 PM CT
The more you analyze this matchup, the more you realize that we should not be getting a return here. Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman has great command(7.46 K/BB ratio), but he is also extremely hittable(9.9 H/9). More importantly, he has really struggled at the Rogers Centre this year, bringing in a 4.48 ERA and 1.49 WHIP into tonight’s start. He had success against the Rays earlier this season on a few separate occasions, but this Tampa lineup has undoubtedly improved over the course of the summer. Since July 1st, the Rays rank 6th in baseball with a 112 wRC+ vs righties on the road.
Rays SP Shane McClanahan is having a Cy Young caliber season(2.20 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), and funny enough, his WHIP drops all the way to 0.71 when pitching on the road. I know this is his first start in 3 weeks, but that dominance is too hard to ignore. In addition, the Jays offense has struggled against lefties in their home ballpark; since July 1st, they hold a measly 85 wRC+ in this role.
Kevin Cash has managed his bullpen better throughout his series, and he will have every back-end arm available for today. The Jays bullpen has improved over the second half of the season, but they are still at a slight disadvantage in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-120) vs Reds–6:45 PM CT
Reds SP Chase Anderson has thrown just 90 innings across the last 3 seasons; in that time frame, he has allowed an alarming 2.4 HR/9. This year, Anderson has also struggled with his control, walking 1 batter per inning in a limited sample size. The Cardinals can get after Anderson in a variety of ways, and they have been great in this role. Since July 1st, the Red Birds rank 3rd in baseball with a 119 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. Additionally, the Reds rank 28th in bullpen WHIP and are a pretty easy team to fade in the later innings. We should not be getting this at a standard number and price.
