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*MLB(1u): Rays F5 ML(-120) vs Astros–5:40 PM CT
Rays SP Drew Rasmussen has been absolutely impeccable at Tropicana Field this year, bringing a 1.97 ERA and 0.80 WHIP into tonight’s start. The Astros struggle in this role a lot more than people would expect; since July 1st, the ‘Stros hold a below average 94 wRC+ vs righties on the road. They did look good at the plate against this weekend against the A’s pitching staff, but history proves that’s not a good barometer of where an offense is at. Just last month, the Astros swept the A’s at home only to lose the first 2 games of their ensuing series in Chicago against the White Sox.
Astros SP Luis Garcia is a better arm than his 4.04 ERA would indicate, but he’s still at a disadvantage in this matchup. Garcia has just been slightly off all season; he’s struggled with allowing the long ball at home while struggling with this command(3.2 BB/9) on the road. This Rays offense was mediocre for most of the season but have steadily improved throughout the course of the summer. Since July 1st, the Rays hold a solid 113 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark.
The Rays dug deep into their bullpen this weekend and are at a slight disadvantage even when at full strength vs Houston’s deep bullpen. As such, I’ll isolate this one in the F5.
