An 0-1 start to the week brings my MLB record to 160-148-6, +4.97u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 -0.5(-110) vs Cardinals–6:40 PM CT
This is a far bigger pitching mismatch than this line would let on. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff has been utterly dominant at home this year(2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP) and held a sub-1.00 WHIP in both 2020 and 2021. The Cardinals have had a great second half offensively, but they’ve regressed a bit as of late. If you take away one 11-run performance in LA last weekend, the Red Birds have scored less than 2 runs/game over their last 8 games. When you consider they clinched the NL Central last night, it is unlikely they will throw out their “A” lineup in this matchup.
Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has had massive struggles on the road this year(4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), including in Milwaukee back in July(4 ER in 4 innings). The Brewers have 4 projected starters with a career OPS above 1.000 vs Quintana. I know Quintana’s season ERA at 3.03 looks very good, but a WHIP at 1.22 is proof that he has escaped his fair share of damage.
*MLB(1u): Angels -1.5(+110) vs Athletics–8:40 PM CT
Angels SP Michael Lorenzen has been atrocious on the road this year, but at Angel Stadium, he has fared quite well(3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). In 2 starts vs the A’s this year, Lorenzen has allowed just 1 ER in 13 innings. This A’s offense has been unbackable all season, and they present virtually no threat to slug off of Lorenzen in a role he’s settled into nicely.
Athletics SP Adrian Martinez is clearly in the big leagues out of necessity, not because he deserves to be. In 10 starts this year, Martinez holds an ugly 1.52 WHIP and is allowing an alarmingly high 2.2 HR/9. The Angels were a lineup to fade when Mike Trout was on the IL, but since he’s rejoined the club, this offense has shown signs of life. They scored 18 runs in Minnesota this weekend and followed that up with a 12-hit performance last night.
A big part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. The Angels might hold only modest bullpen numbers, but that still means they hold a sizable edge over an Oakland bullpen that ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP this year and has been an easy fade all season. If more stock were put into bullpen metrics and Lorenzen were being priced according to his home numbers, we wouldn’t be getting this at plus-money.
