*CFB(1u): Boise State +5(-110) @ UCF–Thursday 6:00 PM CT
This is one of the more interesting Week 1 matchups on the board featuring two of the top G5 programs in the country who are both breaking in new Head Coaches. UCF hands the reins over to former Auburn HC Gus Malzahn, who takes control of an offense that has been one of the most explosive in the country over the last few seasons. However, given Malzahn’s style, I’m not sure that will continue. UCF led the country by a wide margin in plays/game last season(88), while Malzahn’s Auburn team ran just 70 plays/game. He has the luxury of inheriting a phenomenal QB in Dillon Gabriel, but I wonder how well Gabriel will fit into Malzahn’s more methodical style of offense. UCF will have to integrate transfers in at both the RB and WR position as well, so it’s unlikely they’re on their A game out of the gate. Boise State HC Andy Avalos is a defensive-minded HC who inherits a defense that ranked in the top-third a year ago in yards/game and returns a ton of experience in the front 7. The Boise State offense might not be as sexy as UCF’s has been in previous years, but they are certainly very efficient. QB Hank Bachmeier has had to deal with an assortment of injuries through his first two seasons, but when he’s healthy, he’s been very effective. This is the same guy that, in his first career start as a true freshman, led Boise State to an outright road victory on the road against Florida State. He has a plethora of talented WR’s to work with and should have time to throw while playing behind an experienced OL that only got better through the transfer market this offseason. I don’t think UCF’s defensive struggles are being talked about enough entering this matchup; last season, they were 123rd in the country in yards/game(491.8) and consistently got shown up. While improvement is expected, it’s unrealistic to expect them to be a “good” defense in Game 1 considering how much they struggled last season. UCF is the flashier team that might have the better athletes, but Boise State plays a smarter and more efficient brand of football. The only thing that keeps this from being a multi-unit play is the home-field advantage UCF will enjoy, but I expect Boise State to keep this game within a field goal and very possibly win outright.
