We started the week off with a 1-0, +1u Monday in MLB. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to continue building our bankroll prior to Week 2 of CFB. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins TT UNDER 2.5(-110) @ Phillies–5:45 PM CT
Did you know that the Marlins have been held to 2 runs or less in each of their last 8 ballgames? That’s truly hard to do. Since the All Star Break, this offense has been totally wretched in every since of the word. With Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, and (likely) Avisail Garcia still on the shelf, I see no reason why their fortunes turn tonight.
Phillies SP Aaron Nola has pitched to a sub-1.00 WHIP this year but has had some blowup starts(moreso blowup innings) that have inflated his ERA to 3.43. Nola yielded a season high 8 ER in his last start in Arizona, but he has been terrific in his bounce back spots this season. Nola has allowed 5 ER or more on 4 separate occasions this year, and in his following start, he has allowed just 1 ER in those 4 appearances. When you consider that the wind will be blowing nearly 10 mph in tonight, I think Nola can go deep in this game and totally dominate this putrid lineup.
We will have to trust the Phillies bullpen here(something I’m not always comfortable doing), but considering they are fresh off an off-day and facing this bad of an offense, I’m willing to do so in this spot.
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 ML(+125) @ Mariners–8:40 PM CT
Mariners SP Logan Gilbert has all the makings of a future All Star SP, but he is far too unproven to be getting this much credit. Gilbert holds a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at T-Mobile Park this year; while allowing 8.5 hits/9 innings isn’t bad, it’s proof that Gilbert isn’t as dominant as he’s perceived to be. Gilbert is deep into his second big league season having thrown 155 innings this year; his previous high as a pro was 135 innings back in 2019. Fatigue down the course of September is a consideration in this play. The White Sox have scored over 5.5 runs/game over their last 7 and have improved vs right-handed pitching throughout the course of this season.
I don’t think most people realize how poor the Mariners offense has been in this role. Since July 1st, the Mariners hold a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. White Sox SP Johnny Cueto has enjoyed a career renaissance here in 2022, keeping hitters off-balance to the tune of a sub-3.00 ERA. I think he’s able to make quick work of this Seattle lineup tonight.
The Mariners hold a MAJOR bullpen advantage, which absolutely will keep this a F5 play.
