Shriners Children’s Open – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Luke List backers at the Sanderson Farms last week. It was an exciting finish as it came down to a five-man playoff between Luke List, Scott Stallings, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Ludvig Aberg. The last time there was a five-man playoff on TOUR was the 2016 RSM Classic where Norlander was also a participant. List drained a 43-footer to win after he got a perfect read from Aberg’s putt. This could be the start of a trend at this event as we saw Mackenzie Hughes defeat Sepp Straka in a playoff in 2022.

Our best chance last week for an outright was Mark Hubbard (-17). He was tied for the lead on Sunday heading into 16th where he had a birdie opportunity to take the lead. Hubbard would miss that putt and go on to bogey the last two holes. Alex Smalley (+160) to finish inside the top 20 was our lone winner. We finished -0.40 units on the week.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The 2022 Shriners Children’s Open is the third event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.

Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.

Tom Kim is the defending champion of the Shriners Children’s Open. He finished 24 under par last year which tied the tournament scoring record. Kim became the first player since Tiger Woods in 1996 to win twice on the PGA TOUR before turning 21 with that victory.

Si Woo Kim will make his first start on the FedExCup Fall series. Most recently he won gold at the Asian Games along with Sungjae Im. This victory was life-changing for both players as they’re now exempt from the two-year mandatory military service that is required in South Korea.

Ludvig Aberg will make his second straight TOUR start this week. Aberg was the favorite last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he finished T2 losing in a five-man playoff. While he is exempt through 2024 he still has plenty on the line as he is currently 135th in the FedEx Cup Standings.

Nicolai Højgaard will make his first start following a victory with the Europeans at the Ryder Cup. In his eight starts on the PGA TOUR in 2023, he had two top-10 finishes including a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship.

Lexi Thompson will become the seventh woman to tee it up on the PGA TOUR. She’ll be the first woman since Brittany Lincicome in 2018 at the Barbasol Championship to play in a PGA TOUR event.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: October 12th, 2023 – October 15th, 2023
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Course: TPC Summerlin
• Course Type: Resort
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,255 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Dominator bentgrass .125”
• Fairways: Bandera bermudagrass .425”
• Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.25”
• Bunkers: 92
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,400 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000 /$1,512,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Hole 18 (repeat)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 69.01 (-1.99), Rank 42 of 50
  • 2021: 68.93 (-2.07), Rank 42 of 50
  • 2020: 68.34 (-2.66), Rank 48 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -4
  • 2021: -5
  • 2020: -7

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, October 12th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, October 13th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, October 14th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, October 15th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 77 F, 5 mp/h NE, 19% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 5 mp/h NE, 21% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Sunny 83 F, 5 mp/h ENE, 18% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Sunny 86 F, 4 mp/h ENE, 20% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Shiners Children’s Open was founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic. This event changed names throughout the years but since 2008, Shriner’s Children Hospitals has remained the official sponsor.  When they took over the rights that year, TPC Summerlin also became the host course and the event has been held there every year since. Throughout the entirety of the event, it’s always been held in the Las Vegas surrounding area.

TPC Summerlin opened in 1991 and was originally designed by Booby Wood Throughout the years it’s undergone several minor renovations and in 2021, the greens and fairways were completely replaced. The previous greens were A1/A4 bentgrass and the fairways were 419 bermudagrass. Last year, the greens were changed to Dominator bentgrass, and the fairways were changed to Bandera bermudagrass. Looking at the upcoming PGA Tour schedule, this is the only course that features this unique type of putting surface. Other courses have pure bentgrass greens but none that feature this specific seed of bentgrass.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 3, Jim Furyk (1995, 1998, 1999)
• 72-Hole Record (TPC Summerlin):
  • 260, Ryan Moore (2012), Webb Simpson (2013), Sungjae Im (2021), Tom Kim (2022)
• 18-Hole Record (TPC Summerlin):
  • 60, J.J. Henry (Round 1, 2013), Rod Pampling (Round 1, 2016), Patrick Cantlay (Round 3, 2022)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed with Fuzzy Zoeller as a player consultant. It is a Par 71 that plays 7,255 yards which is on the shorter side when compared to other PGA TOUR sourses. The course features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The three Par 5’s are where players need to score if they want to have a chance of winning this event. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. However, as shown by past winners accuracy off the tee is more important than distance.

This is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average, we should see another winner finish around -23/-24.

The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 239 yards. Last year, hole No. 14 was the only par 3 to have a scoring average under par.

No. 17, 196 yards, Par 3: “A challenging and unnerving par-3 plays from 180 to 210 yards downhill, depending on the hole location, with the green guarded closely by a lake on the left and by bunkers on the right. Par is a good score and birdies are rare, should players need to make up ground.”

There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Summerlin with the majority (seven) of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 last year was No. 3 (+0.127).

No. 15, 341 yards, Par 4: “A short, drivable par-4 measuring 320 yards, which most players will attempt to reach with their tee shot. If the tee shot misses the green, an “up and down” birdie is possible, but not easy, due to the severely elevated and undulated green – which is surrounded by five bunkers that regularly attract stray tee shots.”

No. 18, 444 yards, Par 4: “A well-designed and strategic finishing hole measuring 450 yards which moves right to left off the tee. The green is protected on the left by a lake, with the hole protected by the water. An aggressive tee shot with the driver can leave the player just a short iron to a very deep green from front to back. An aggressive tee shot and second shot could lead to a one-putt birdie. Find the water and you will be lucky to make bogey.”

There are three Par 5’s on the course, No. 9, No. 13, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2022. No. 9 was the easiest par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.549 below par. Hole No. 13, was the toughest Par 5 last year due to it being the only Par 5 that measures over 600 yards.

No. 16, 560 yards, Par 5: “A relatively downhill par-5 that is reachable with two good shots. The green is guarded by water short of the green, and bunkers beyond. For scratch golfers and TOUR players, only a mid-iron will be necessary for the second shot, with a birdie almost a certainty. The scoring swings will come with balls in the water as well as aggressive second shots hit close to the pin.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Driving Accuracy
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x7)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
• Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s Shriners Children’s Open. Only three of the world’s top forty players are in the field. This is a weaker field from last year’s event as Cantlay, Homa, and Im were the favorites. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Tom Kim (+1000) won the Shriners Children’s Open in his debut last year. He struggled a bit last year as he was battling a few injuries but had a string finish. In each of the three playoff events, he finished inside the top 25. Since the TOUR Championship, he’s played twice on the DP World Tour finishing T18 at the BMW PGA Championship and T6 at the Cazoo Open de France.

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) finished T2 at the Sanderson Farms last week losing to Luke List in a five-man playoff. Before that, he had three consecutive top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour including a win at the Omega European Masters. This will be his first appearance at TPC Summerlin.

Cameron Davis (+2000) failed to qualify for the TOUR Championship. He finished 40th at the BMW Championship but had three consecutive top-10 finishes before that. In his last start, Davis finished 3rd at the Fortinet Championship. This will be his fifth appearance at the Shriners Children’s Open with his best finishing coming in 2021 (T27). Despite not cracking the top 20 in each of those four prior times, he has made the cut each time.

Si Woo Kim (+2200) will make his first start since the TOUR Championship where he finished T20. He captured his third win on the PGA TOUR Earlier this year at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Outside of that, he only had four other top-10 finishes. This will be his seventh appearance at the Shriners Children’s Open with his best finishes coming in 2020 and 2022 (T8).

J.J. Spaun (+3000) has finished inside the top 15 in three of his six appearances at TPC Summerlin. He enters this week off two top-25 finishes (T11 – Fortinet, T24 – FedEx St. Jude Championship).

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Tom Kim (’22), Martin Laird (’20, ’09), Ben Martin (’14), Webb Simpson (’13), Ryan Moore (’12)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Trey Mullinax

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	Shriners Children’s Open	Shriners Children’s Open	Shriners Hospitals for Children Open	Shriners Hospitals for Children Open	Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Tom Kim	1
S.H. Kim	T4
Matthew NeSmith	T2	T14	T8	T18
Harry Hall	T15	T8
Hayden Buckley	T20	T8
Adam Hadwin	T10	T6	T34	T4
Chad Ramey	T28	T14
Matt Wallace	T28	T14

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	Shriners Children’s Open	Shriners Children’s Open	Shriners Hospitals for Children Open	Shriners Hospitals for Children Open	Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin	TPC Summerlin
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Garrick Higgo	MC	MC
Cameron Champ	MC		MC	MC	T28
Jason Dufner	MC		MC		MC
Adam Svensson	T69	MC			MC
Scott Harrington	MC		MC
Michael Kim	MC		MC	MC	MC
Satoshi Kodaira			MC	MC	T41
MJ Daffue	MC		MC
Ryan Armour	MC		MC	MC
Tyler Duncan	T72		MC		MC
Zac Blair	MC		MC	MC
Martin Trainer		MC	MC	MC	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Tom Kim (-24)
  • Price: 25-1
• 2021: Sungjae Im (-24)
  • Price: 33-1
• 2020: Martin Laird (-23)
  • Price: 225-1
• 2019: Kevin Na (-23)
  • Price: 70-1
• 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
  • Price: 14-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Tom Kim
  • T4 – Dunlop Phoenix Tournament (JPN)
  • T54 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
  • 1 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
  • 7 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
• 2021: Sungjae Im
  • T31 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T20 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • 3 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T16 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T24 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
• 2020: Martin Laird
  • T28 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T65 – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • 65 – Lincoln Land Championship (KFT)
  • T6 – Puerto Rico Open (PGA)
• 2019: Kevin Na
  • MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • T14 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
  • T77 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • T43 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
  • WD – 3M Open (PGA)
• 2018: Bryson DeChambeau
  • 19 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
  • T19 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • 1 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)
  • 1 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • MC – PGA Championship (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2022: Tom Kim
  • Debut at Event
• 2021: Sungjae Im
  • 2020 – T13
  • 2018 – T15
• 2020: Martin Laird
  • 2019 – T48
  • 2018 – T28
  • 2017 – MC
  • 2016 – T27
  • 2015 – T43
  • 2014 – T18
  • 2013 – MC
  • 2011 – T40
  • 2010 – T2
  • 2009 – 1
  • 2008 – T47
• 2019: Kevin Na
  • 2018 – MC
  • 2016 – MC
  • 2015 – T2
  • 2013 – MC
  • 2011 – T22
  • 2010 – 1
  • 2009 – T45
  • 2007 – T15
  • 2006 – T19
  • 2005 – T24
• 2018: Bryson DeChambeau
  • 2017 – T7
  • 2016 – T36

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Si Woo Kim (+2200) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

• Adam Schenk (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Tom Hoge (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Davis Thompson (+5000) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Matt Wallace (+9000) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.08 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Andrew Putnam (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

• Adam Hadwin (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Shriners Children’s Open: 3.08 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.