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SoFi Hawai’i Bowl
Hawaii vs Brigham Young
8:00 PM ET, Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
PICK: BYU -135/Small
Reading and seeing more love for Hawaii in this one than BYU. Going over the numbers, I think this matchup leans toward BYU.
Trends
Hawaii is 7-19 ATS last 16 vs team w winning record
Hawaii 1-4 ATS last 5 bowl games
BYU has won 9 of last 10 vs Hawaii
BYU 7-0 straight up last 7 bowl games
BYU 8-2 ATS last 10 vs MWC
Hawaii
The game is in Hawaii, so while this is considered a neutral game, this is at Hawaii. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, Hawaii’s #194 ranked defense allows nearly 100 more yards per game at home vs on the road. Hawaii’s run defense is allowing 4.8 ypc on the road, but at home they allow 6.1 ypc. Their run defense is #103 and has allowed over 200 yards rushing in 6 games this season.
Hawaii allowed 432 or more total yards at home this year to Arizona (539), Oregon St (432), Air Force (522), Fresno St (514), San Jose St (497) and Army (538). Hawaii is -10 in net turnovers at home vs -4 on the road. Hawaii is 35/33 PF/PA at home and 31/1 PF/PA in road games. Hawaii had a stretch where the allowed 500 plus yards in 4 straight games this season.
QB Cole Mcdonald was 5th in the nation in passing yards. In his first 7 games of the season, Mcdonald had 23 TD and 10 INT. In the final 6 games, he threw just 6 TD and 4 INT.
BYU
Conversely, BYU seems to put up better numbers on the road. At home, they average 27 pf and 27 pa but on the road, BYU scores 29 and gives up 22. Their pass defense is #36 in the nation. They allow 213 yards passing at home and 194 on road. BYU’s pass defense held opponents under 200 passing yards in 7 games this season. The Cougars are even in net turnovers at home but +4 in net turnovers in road games this season.
BYU is not a great rushing offense at #71 but they have had success against teams who are not great run defenses. They put up over 200 yards rushing 4 times this season, 3 of those games were on the road.
Common Opponents
Washington
Not much to draw from this opponent. The Huskies handled both teams.
Boise St
Hawaii lost twice to Boise this season. 59-37 and then 31-10. Both games at Boise and the latter was the MWC Conference Championship where Boise St was without their starting QB. In the first matchup with Boise at full strength, Hawaii allowed over 500 yards of offense and Hawaii was – 3 in turnovers.
BYU beat Boise 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars held Boise St to 185 passing yards
Advantage -BYU
San Diego St
San Diego St doesn’t bring a lot on offense but does have a good defense.
Hawaii did beat San Diego St 14-11 and BYU lost at San Diego St 13-3. The Cougars, who used three different starting quarterbacks this season due to injury, averaged 39.8 points during a five-game winning streak that was snapped when they were limited to a season-low total in a 13-3 loss at San Diego State However, BYU held San Diego St to 269 yards on the road while Hawail allowed them 318 yards. BYU put up 416 total yards against the Aztec defense but -3 turnovers killed their momentum.
