Sony Open in Hawaii – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Chris Kirk backers last week at The Sentry! We failed to hit an outright last week but did cash one of our top 20 placements, Eric Cole (+138).

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Will Zalatoris will make his first PGA Tour start since the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play last March. He has played once following back surgery which was last month at the Hero World Challenge where he finished 20th.

Gary Woodland will make his return to the PGA Tour following brain surgery in September. His last PGA Tour start was at Wyndham Championship in August. He’s played in this event eight times before with four top-20 finishes.

Chris Kirk, winner of last week’s event, is in the field this week as well. He’ll look to come just the sixth folder to win both Hawaii Tour events in one year.

Several notable players will be making their PGA Tour debut this week. Rintaro Nakano, who won the Japan Amateur in 2023, will make his PGA TOUR debut. Adrien Dumont de Chassart, who finished third on the PGA TOUR U last season, has played in a major (U.S. Open ’22) but has not played in a a regular TOUR event.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: January 11th, 2024 – January 14th, 2024
• Location: Honolulu, Hawaii, United States
• Course: Waialae Country Club
• Course Type: Coastal
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,044 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bermudagrass .120”
• Fairways: Bermudagrass .400”
• Rough: Bermudagrass 3”
• Bunkers: 83
• Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,100 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11-12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,300,000 /$1,494,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Hole 18 (repeat)
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 68.87 (-1.13), Rank 34 of 49
  • 2022: 68.00 (-2.00), Rank 41 of 50
  • 2021: 67.98 (-2.02), Rank 45 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: -2
  • 2022: -5
  • 2021: -4

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, January 11th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM
• Round 2: Friday, January 12th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, January 13th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, January 14th, 2024
  • NBC – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: PM Showers 76 F, 11 mp/h W, 71% Humidity, 45% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 72 F, 15 mp/h N, 67% Humidity, 21% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 76 F, 10 mp/h N, 66% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 77 F, 6 mp/h WSW, 69% Humidity, 12% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Sony Open was inaugurated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open. It’s been held at Waialae Country Club ever since. It’s also the third oldest host course on the PGA Tour following only Colonial and Pebble Beach.

Waialae Country Club was founded 96 years ago in 1927. The course was originally built by the Territorial Hotel Company as part of a promotional program to encourage travel to Hawaii. Seth Raynor, the architect, incorporated several aspects from other major courses around the world including St. Andrews, North Berwick Golf Club, and the Biarritz Course.

The typical front and back nines are switched this week for the PGA Tour as the “9th” features a picturesque dog-leg creating a more exciting finish. This was done so to utilize the sun’s power setting in the west.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 2, Hubert Green (1978, 1979), Corey Pavin (1986, 1987), Lanny Wadkins (1988, 1991), Ernie Els (2003, 2004), Jimmy Walker (2014, 2015)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 253, Justin Thomas (2017)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 59, Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2017)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Waialae is completely different from what we saw last week at Kapalua. The course is about ~400 yards less and puts more emphasis on accuracy. The players will have shorter wedges into greens this week which is an advantage and something they’ll need to excel at as approach play has been a major key to victory here.

Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour and plays roughly 7,044 yards. It’s a Par 70 which means Par 4 Scoring will be placed at a premium this week as Waialae only features two Par 5’s. There are four Par 3’s on the course but all of them play roughly 200 yards or less. Last year, this was one of the easiest events in terms of Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring.

The main defense for the course is the wind but we are expected to have more ideal conditions than last week which means it won’t be a major factor.

The four Par 3’s range from 176 to 204 yards. Last year, Hole No. 4 was the only Par 3 to have a scoring average under par.

No. 7, 176 yards, Par 3: The second of the par-3s on the tournament’s front nine, this green is as wide as the par-3 hole #4 is long. Originally, this green was completely surrounded by sand, giving the hole its name. Bunkers still wrap around the entire front side of this green with a lone bunker on the backside. A deep ridge on the front of the green runs laterally front to back.

No. 17, 194 yards, Par 3: The most scenic hole at Waialae bears the name of the Sony Open fire-bird according to Hawaiian lore. Hole #17 is a very difficult par-3 requiring a long or middle iron. The green features the original Seth Raynor design which is a classic Redan-style green with a large bunker on the left and a series of three deep, hidden bunkers guarding the right. Par-3 is a good score here, especially in the final round.

There are twelve Par 4’s at Waialae with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 last year was No. 13 (+0.218).

No. 1, 480 yards, Par 4: This hole was originally designed in 1927 by Seth Raynor with the famous Road Hole of St. Andrews, Scotland in mind. The forward tee constructed in 1999 makes this former par-5 hole play as a par-4 and 1/2! Depending on the wind, the second shot to a very shallow green guarded in front by a deep bunker and a bunker surrounding
the right half of the green can be played with anything from a 3-wood to a 9-iron.

No. 16, 417 yards, Par 4: Tee it high and let it fly! A finish with the wind at your back. The best place for the drive is on the right side of the fairway. The second shot is a short iron played to a green framed by the Pacific Ocean and several large palm trees. This hole is considered the signature hole at Waialae

There are only two Par 5’s on the course, No. 9 and No. 18. Both of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 9 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.67 below par.

No. 9, 506 yards, Par 5: Normally played as hole #18 by Waialae members, this par-5 requires accuracy on both the drive and the second shots. O.B. runs down the left side of the fairway and a red penalty area down the right. A strong left-to-right wind makes this hole even tougher. It is reachable in 2 strokes, however, and has given up its share of birdies.

No. 18, 551 yards, Par 5: “A great finishing hole! Isao Aoki proved this in 1983 with a spectacular eagle for his victory. Aoki knocked it in from 128 yards out, but this hole is reachable in 2 strokes. A bunker set in the dog-leg makes the drive off the tee a “thinking shot.” A second shot can be played straight downwind to the green.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • As with most tournaments on TOUR, strokes gained on approach is a major factor. While this course does have some of the largest greens on Tour, it shouldn’t be a straightforward task this week as the wind is predicted to play a factor.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Lucas Glover
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Gary Woodland
    • Mark Hubbard
    • Alex Smalley

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
  • The green complexes at Waialae Country Club are Bermudagrass .120”. If you’re going to win this event you’re going to need to putt well. Since 2016, six of the eight winners were 5th or better in SG: Putting for the week.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Ben Taylor
    • Taylor Montgomery
    • Alexander Noren
    • Justin Suh

• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Based on the Strokes Gained Stats of the Sony winners, SG: Around the Green has shown to be pivotal. Three of the past four winners at this event ranked 13th or better in this category in the field. The only outlier was Hideki Matsuyama in 2022 who was 22nd in SG: Around the Green.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Aaron Baddeley
    • Troy Merritt
    • Brendon Todd
    • Alexander Noren
    • Ludvig Aberg

• Driving Accuracy
  • Waialae Country Club has the 11th largest fairways on the Tour with an average fairway width of 35.0 yards. It also features the 8th largest green size. Based on these two stats, driving accuracy isn’t the first key stat that comes to mind. However, players need to be accurate off the tee since this is a “second shot” course. If they’re able to have short wedges into these greens it should allow them to have more birdie opportunities. This course is also the 5th shortest on Tour so distance won’t matter as much as it did last week at Kapalua.

• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
  • Three of the four Par 3’s range between 175-200 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole
    • Luke List
    • Alex Smalley
    • Lucas Glover
    • Michael Kim

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the Twelve Par 4’s range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Russell Henley
    • Justin Rose
    • Ryan Moore
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Denny McCarthy

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
  • Five of the Twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Tyrrell Hatton
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Martin Laird

• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
  • Both of the Par 5’s range between 500 – 550 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Davis Thompson
    • Jhonattan Vegas
    • Matthias Schmid
    • Michal Kim
    • Chun-an Yu

• Proximity: 150-175 Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Taylor Pendrith
    • Ben Martin
    • Brandon Wu
    • Chris Krik
    • Lucas Glover

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • Four of the last five previous winning scores at this event have been -20 or lower. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity if they want to have a chance at winning.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • J. T. Poston
    • Luke List
    • Will Zalatoris

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • The Sony Open in Hawaii has been played at Waialae Country Club since its inception so we have plenty of course history to go off. Seventeen of the eighteen previous winners played in this event before winning. Past performance is key this week as Waialae is the second most predictive course on the Tour only behind Augusta National.

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players competing in this year’s tournament. Fifteen of the top forty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. This is one of the strongest fields we have seen at this event. 36 of the 59 players from last week’s tournament (The Sentry) will take the short flight and compete in this week’s event. This is also the first event of the year that will have a “cut” after 36 holes (shoutout Full Swing). Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) finished T47 at The Sentry last week. It was the first time he lost strokes off the tee since he played in the 2021 RSM Classic. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1600) started off the 2024 season with a good performance at The Sentry finishing T14. In in last five starts, including three on the DP World Tour, Hatton has finished inside the top-15 in four of those events. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600) will be making his tournament debut this week. He finished T14 at The Sentry last week with the lone issue being his approach game. He gained strokes in every other category besides that one.

Russell Henley (+2200) finished T52 at The Sentry last week. Before that, he had finished inside the top 15 in each of his last five events. Henley won the Sony Open in Hawaii back in 2013 and finished runner-up in 2022.

Brian Harman (+2500) started the 2024 season off strong with a T5 finish at The Sentry last week. This will be his thirteenth appearance at Waialae Country Club. He had a solid run here from 2015-2018 finishing inside the top 20 in each of those four starts. Since then, he has yet to finish inside the top 30 here in his last five appearances.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Si Woo Kim (’23), Hideki Matsuyama (’22), Matt Kuchar (’19), Patton Kizzire (’18), Russell Henley (’13), Ryan Palmer (’10), Zach Johnson (’09)
• Debutants in the Field:
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Aguri Iwasaki, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Christopher Gotterup, Garrick Higgo, Hunter Larson, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Kensei Hirata, Kevin Dougherty, Ludvig Aberg, Mac Meissner, Matt Wallace, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Norman Xiong, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Phillips Chandler, Pierceson Coody, Rintaro Nakano, Robert MacIntyre, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Tom Whitney, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Wilson Furr

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Facts & Figures:

• Eight of the last ten winners had played at Kapalua in the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week prior.
• Each of the last ten winners had a T13 finish or better in one of their five prior events.

 

Horses for Courses:

	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii
	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club
	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Hayden Buckley	2	T12	–	–	–
Maverick McNealy	T7	T27	–	–	–
Corey Conners	T12	11	–	T12	T3
Russell Henley	T32	2	T11	MC	66
Webb Simpson	MC	T61	T4	3	–
Matt Kuchar	T7	T7	MC	MC	1
Hideki Matsuyama	T48	1	T19	T12	T51
Kevin Kisner	–	T3	T32	T4	T69
Ryan Palmer	T32	T12	T41	T4	–
Nick Taylor	T7	–	T11	T32	MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii	Sony Open in Hawaii
	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club	Waialae Country Club
	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Takumi Kanaya	–	MC	MC	–	MC
Alex Smalley	MC	MC	–	–	–
Brandon Wu	MC	MC	–	–	–
Mark Hubbard	MC	MC	T32	MC	–
Troy Merritt	T65	–	T56	MC	MC
Luke List	–	–	MC	MC	–
Ryan Moore	MC	MC	–	–	–
Tyler Duncan	MC	MC	–	MC	T57
Doug Ghim	–	–	MC	MC	–
Tyler McCumber	–	–	MC	MC	–

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
  • Price: 45-1
• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
  • Price: 20-1
• 2021: Kevin Na (-21)
  • Price: 80-1
• 2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
  • Price: 55-1
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
  • Price: 40-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Si Woo Kim
  • T35 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
  • T52 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
  • T45 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
  • T8 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T5 – The 38th Shinhan Donghae Open (ASA)

• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama
  • T13 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • WON – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
  • T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T6 – Fortinent Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Kevin Na
  • T38 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T13 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T28 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
  • T45 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T43 – Shriners Hospital for Children Open (PGA)

• 2020: Cameron Smith
  • T10 – Australian PGA Championship (EUR)
  • T60 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
  • T3 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T13 – Shriners Hospital for Children Open (PGA)
  • MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)

• 2019: Matt Kuchar
  • T19 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • WON – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T57 – Shriners Hospital for Children Open (PGA)
  • T23 – Emirates Australian Open (ANZ)
  • T30 – Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (EUR)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2023: Si Woo Kim
  • 2022 – T55
  • 2021 – T25
  • 2019 – MC
  • 2018 – T58
  • 2017 – 4

• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama
  • 2021 – T19
  • 2020 – T12
  • 2019 – T51
  • 2017 – T27
  • 2015 – T78
  • 2013 – MC
  • 2012 – MC
  • 2011 – MC

• 2021: Kevin Na
  • 2018 – MC
  • 2017 – T36
  • 2016 – T28
  • 2015 – T64
  • 2014 – T8
  • 2013 – MC
  • 2012 – MC
  • 2011 – T20
  • 2010 – T52
  • 2009 – T5
  • 2008 – T4
  • 2005 – MC
  • 2004 – T41

• 2020: Cameron Smith
  • 2019 – T22
  • 2018 – T18
  • 2017 – T27
  • 2016 – T81

• 2019: Matt Kuchar
  • 2016 – T13
  • 2015 – T3
  • 2014 – T8
  • 2013 – T5
  • 2011 – T5
  • 2010 – MC
  • 2009 – MC
  • 2008 – 65
  • 2007 – MC
  • 2004 – MC

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Corey Conners (+2800) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

• Sahith Theegala (+3300) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Byeong Hun An (+3500) – Caesars
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Adam Svensson (+5000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Andrew Putnam (+5000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.09 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Eric Cole (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

• J.T. Poston (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Nico Echavarria (+225) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 2.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Total Risk on the Sony Open in Hawaii: 4.09 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.