Sony Open – Preview & Picks

January 11, 2022

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Cameron Smith captures the Sentry Tournament of Champions shooting an outstanding -34 under Par. With that score, Cam Smith not only set the course record but the PGA record for lowest score on Tour as well. He was able to hold off the #1 Player in the World, John Rahm who finished just one shot behind him.

We’re hopping islands this week and heading to Honolulu for the Sony Open. Most players who took place in the Sentry ToC will play this week as they’re already in Hawaii. However, we did have one notable withdraw earlier this week with Bryson Dechambeau citing a sore wrist. He didn’t play well at all last week and finished 25th in a field of just 39.

The Sony Open will be the last tournament held in Hawaii as we begin the California swing next week. The American Express, Farmer’s Insurance Open, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am will all take place out there.

Last week Kapalua offered wide open fairways, major elevation changes, and large greens. However, Waialae is very different as the course is flat, narrow, and features tight difficult to hit greens. Despite the contrast in courses, the last 6 of 7 winners at the Sony Open have also taken part in the Sentry Tournament of Champions which is something to watch out for.

Looking at the board quickly as it stands, Cam Smith is now the favorite to win this tournament at 9/8-1. He won this event back in 2020 and is coming off a great performance so it makes sense that he’s the top guy. However, that being said there is absolutely no value in betting Cam at that number. This is a full field tournament and the only guy that should be a single digit favorite in a full field is Rahm and possibly Morikawa.

Besides Cam Smith, Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, and Marc Leishman are all listed at 20-1 or lower.

While we wont see the winning score in the mid to low 30’s, it should be another birdie-fest given the weather conditions.

Lets get into the Sony Open and breakdown the course and our picks.

Tournament Information:

Dates: January 13th, 2022- January 16th, 2022
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii, United States
Course: Waialae Country Club
Course Type: Coastal/ Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,044 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties
Greens: Bermudagrass .120″
Fairways: Bermudagrass .400″
Rough: Bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 11.0 feet
Purse: $7,500,000 / Winner $1.350 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 83
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,100 sq. ft.
Scoring Average:
- 2021: 67.98 (-2.02)

Course/ Tournament History:

The Sony Open was inaugurated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open and has been held at Waialae Country Club ever since. It is the third oldest host course on the PGA Tour following only Colonial and Pebble Beach.

The typical front and back nines are switched this week for the PGA Tour as the “9th” features a picturesque dog-leg creating a more exciting finish.

Justin Thomas, who will not be playing this week set the course record back in 2017 shooting 27 under par with a total of 253 strokes. John Huston actually recorded a lower score of 28 under par back in 1998 but, finished with a total of 260 strokes as the par has been adjusted since then.

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Like I previously mentioned, Waialae is completely different from what we saw last week at Kapalua. The course is about ~400 yards less and puts more emphasis on accuracy to win. The fairways are treelined and tight, while the greens are small with tough pin locations. The players will have shorter wedges into greens this week which is an advantage and something they’ll need to excel at as GIR has been a major key to victory here.

Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour and plays roughly 7,044 yards. Its a Par 70 which means Par 4 Scoring will be placed at a premium this week as Waialae only features two Par 5’s. There’s four Par 3’s on the course but all of them play roughly 200 yards or less. Last year, this was one of the easiest events in terms of Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring.

The main defense for the course is the wind but we are expected to have similar conditions as last week which means it won’t be a major factor. In addition to the wind, the tight fairways can punish inaccurate players off the tee putting them at a disadvantage for their approach shots.

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Course Architect: Seth Raynor (1927)
Renovations: Tom Doak (2017/2018)
Comparable Courses:
- Sedgefield
- Colonial
- Harbour Town

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, January 13th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM ET

Round 2: Friday, January 14th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM ET

Round 3: Saturday, January 15th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM ET

Round 4: Sunday, January 16th, 2021
- Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM ET

Weather:

Thursday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 10 mp/h NE, 72% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Friday: Partly Cloudy 73 F, 7 mp/h WNW, 72% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Mostly Sunny 74 F, 5 mp/h WNW, 70% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Sunny 74 F, 9 mp/h ENE, 71% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Stokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Greens in Regulation %
Driving Accuracy
Par 4 Scoring
Proximity 100-125 Yards

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

2021: Kevin Na (-21)
- Price: 80-1
2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
- Price: 55-1
2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
- Price: 40-1
2018: Patton Kizzire (-17)
- Price: 80-1
2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
- Price: 14-1

Picks (Outright):

Marc Leishman (+2000) – Caears
- Risk: 0.20 to win 8.0 Units

When you talk about a “horse for the course” look no further than Marc Leishman. Undoubtedly he’s a popular play this week but there’s also a reason for that. He’s gaining strokes putting on Bermuda, a great approach player, and in great form. Last week he finished T10 at the Sentry while gaining strokes putting and on approach, both key factors this week. In addition to that, he’s recent finishes as Waialae include 3-28-4. His odds have dropped a bit since opening given the amount of money that has come in on him but, at 20-1 he’s still a very solid play.

Kevin Kisner (+3500) – Caesars
- Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

I think Kevin Kisner said it best himself when he made a comment about only being able to compete on shorter courses. Well look no further than the Sony Open which places an emphasis on a strong iron and short game both of which Kisner possess. He did struggle a bit last year here finishing 32nd but has placed within the Top 5 three times here before. Kisner is historically better on Bermuda gaining strokes and while he lacks distance off the tee makes up for it in terms of accuracy ranking 1st.

Talor Gooch (+3500) – Caesars
- Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Talor Gooch may be the newest breakout star on the PGA Tour. He had a fantastic fall-swing where he captured his first win on Tour at the RSM Classic. He hasn’t done great at this event in the past but hasn’t been in the form he’s currently in. His best finish at the Sony Open came back in 2018 where he finished 18th. He teed it up for the first time last week following his victory and finished 15th at the Sentry ToC. Gooch has become one of the top iron players on the Tour recently and is gaining strokes on Bermudagrass. He’s listed at 35-1 for a reason but, given his recently found success, he has a shot here.

Alex Smalley (+16000) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.05 to win 8.0 Units

Let’s look at the long shot of the week, Alex Smalley. Prior to missing the cut at the RSM Classic, his last event, he had two Top 20’s at the Butterfield Bermuda and the HPE Houston Open. He’s 31st in Par 4 Scoring and 44th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders. While his putting does concern me a bit, he did gain strokes putting at the Houston Open. He’s a longshot for a reason but if he can put together a solid putting performance he should fair well here. I also have him for Top 40 at +185 which is the safer play.

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.71 Units

Picks (Top 10):

Webb Simpson (+165) – Pointsbet
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units

As most in the “Golf Twitter” community know, Fan Duel offered this at +450 on Tuesday before it being bet down to the current number. However, even at the current number it’s still a play for me. Webb Simpson has finished inside the Top 10 in his last three times at this course. He’s ranks well in terms of Par 4 scoring and has gained the second most strokes putting on Bermuda since 2018. Simpson’s iron game and putting makes him a great fit for this course.

Total Risk on Top 10: 1.00 Units

Picks (Top 20):

Christian Bezuidenhout (+250) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.5 to win 1.25 Units

He’s best finish during the fall swing came back at Mayakoba where he finished T15. He’s not a long player off the tee by any means but this course does fit him well. Historically he’s a great putting on the Bermuda surface gaining 0.88 strokes putting since 2018. Additionally he’s a solid approach player which another key area this week. This will be his first time playing this course but should do well based on the historical data needed to win here.

Denny McCarthy (+360) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.8 Units

Denny McCarthy has been one of the best putters on Bermuda in the past few years. He’s around 50th in terms of Driving Accuracy which is important given the tight course. McCarthy is a solid iron/short game player ranking 37th in GIR % and 29th SG: Around the Green. Additionally he’s 14th in Scoring Average as it’s crucial to go low here to be competitive. The last stat that sold me on this play was his Par 4 Scoring Average that ranks 18th on Tour. In his last four events, he has finished in the Top 20 in three of them so he’s in great form.

Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):