The Cardinals look to bounce back here as they’ve lost their last 3 and are just 4-6 in their last 10. The Dodgers on the other hand have won their last 3 games and are 7-3 in their last 10.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they are sending Miles Mikolas to the mound. Mikolas is sporting a 6.75 ERA on the road. He’s also giving up 2.09 HR’s per 9 innings on the road. His last 3 road starts he’s given up 5 runs in 4 innings to the Giants, 3 runs in 6 innings to the Reds and 3 runs in 6 innings to the Pirates. He’s going to have a much better effort here as the Dodgers have hit the third most home runs in the MLB.
The Dodgers will counter with Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has a 2.35 ERA at home. He is giving up less than 1 home run per 9 innings and has about a 9/2 K to BB ratio. He also hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in a start since the end of June. The Cardinals offense has been pretty stagnant lately as well scoring only 5 runs in their last 3 games.
I think the play here is pretty clear and straight forward. This line implies a 56.5% probability that it will hit. I think this should be more like 65%, which would make the line closer to -186 where the full game line is. I’m pounding the value here.
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 F5 -130
