Top of the mornin’ to ya laddies! May the wind be at your back, may the mighty seas guide you to your destination, and may we keep winning motherfucking bets like we did last night!
Epic 5-1, nearly +6 unit night Wednesday! And we got a little St. Patty’s day fortune with the Irish, too. Now, it’s time for a little more Madness. Let’s go!
NBA Picks:
- Magic/Pistons under 219, 1 unit
- Believe it or not, I think there’s value on this stinky stinky one-game slate. Trends are pointing towards the under for both teams, who each hit ATS unders in 70-80% of their last 7-8 contests. Detroit likes to play slow, both teams have among the worst shooting percentages in the NBA, and Orlando’s defense has stepped up and played better recently (please exclude that last 150 point explosion from the Nets in that analysis ha). This feels like a sleepy, slow, defensive game and a few of the better scorers are either OUT or questionable. Under for me.
March Madness Picks:
- Michigan -1, 1.5 units
- This is a bad matchup for Colorado State and they were lucky to draw the seed they did. Michigan has the pedigree and experience, and they don’t know they’re not as good as year’s past. I think the Wolverines make a statement early against inferior competition.
- Providence ML (-140), 1.4 units
- SD State depends on 3-point shooting to overwhelm teams and their potential is no joke, but Providence has really solid perimeter defenders and this will be a BIG TIME uptick in class for SD State. Not going to risk the line- I’ll take a ML play on the Friars.
- Longwood TT under 57.5, 1 unit
- The formidable Volunteer defense, probably the best unit entering the tournament right now, will rely heavily on their elite defense to ensure their place in the bracket stays afloat. The talent gap is extremely wide in this contest, and Longwood has one of the highest “luck ratings” in college basketball. I think they really struggle scoring here.
- Richmond/Iowa over 150.5, 1 unit
- I wish we got a better number here, but Richmond should be able to hold their own against one of the best offenses in the tournament. Unlike other higher seeds in the 1st round, Richmond has faced very solid defenses throughout the year and I don’t think they blink an eye on that end of the court. Iowa simply cannot be stopped, so I have to go light with an over play.
- Lean, North Carolina -3.5
- The Tar Heels have been too inconsistent to bet right now, but Marquette has been trending in the wrong direction for the past few weeks. Lean NC.
- St. Mary’s -2.5, 1.5 units
- This is a good opening matchup for the Gaels. They’re well coached, and they should out-execute the Hoosiers in the 2nd half. Indiana fought hard against Wyoming and I think that will affect them late against St. Mary’s.
- Akron +13, 1 unit
- This should be a slow, slow game and while Akron isn’t in the same class as UCLA, the opportunity and matchup only points us towards the dog. Take the Zips and the points for a decent price.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
