Stanley Cup Finals Preview & Picks – Game 2

June 18, 2022

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The Avalanche take Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals thanks to Andre Burakovsky. Tampa Bay will look to even up the series while Colorado aims to take a 2-0 series lead. I’ll break down Game 2 of the Stanley Cup along with some game, team, and player props.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 1-0)

Side Line Movement

After the Avalanche closed as -150 home favorites in Game 1, they’re currently listed at the same price for Game 2. I mentioned this in my previous article but, Colorado has been favorited to win every game this post season. Despite Tampa Bay’s track record of avoiding consecutive losses, the line has remained constant.

Total Line Movement

Just like in Game 1, the total has been set at 6.0 for Game 2. In the first game we saw the total slightly juiced to the over at -115 but as of now it’s listed at -110. Keep in mind, a similar scenario occurred when these teams squared off during the regular season. In their first matchup the over hit, and in the second game they juiced the total to the over and the under hit. I have a feeling book makers are trying to avoid that scenario here because if the over does end up at -115/-120 a lot of sharp betters will take the under at plus money.

Game 2 Breakdown

Colorado came out firing in Game 1 using their speed to propel them to a 3-1 lead after the first period. Tampa Bay made some adjustments and were able to tie the game heading into the third. After a scoreless third period, we went to overtime where Andre Burakovsky was the hero for the Avalanche.

We knew this was going to be a tight series and I think that trend continues in the remaining games. The trend of Tampa Bay struggling in the opening game of a series continued but they did show some fight. Following the first game, Jon Cooper has been great at making the necessary adjustments. I think we see that here in Game 2 with Tampa Bay really hunkering down in the first to avoid a large deficit like Game 1. Vasilevskiy also struggled a bit allowing some “softer” goals than usual but settled in nicely making some huge saves to force overtime.

Colorado will continue to try and use their speed to give them an advantage over this Tampa Bay roster. They switched up their lines a bit for the first game and I’m sure they’ll be sticking with that lineup for Game 2. Darcy Kuemper made his return to the net and looked okay finishing the game with a -0.78 GSAx. He did make some nice saves but allowed 3 goals on just 23 shots. Tampa’s going to come out firing in Game 2 so he’ll have to step up his play to match. Kardi and Cogliano have progressed but are questionable for Saturday’s game.

In the first game, the biggest matchup was Colorado’s offense against Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, I think that switches in Game 2 where the most important matchup will be Darcy Kuemper against Tampa Bay’s offense. The Lightning proved they could score on him and game 2 and will undoubtedly have more than 23 shots on goal in Saturday’s game. We’ll see if he’s up for the test or if Tampa Bay can even up the series heading back home.

TBL Injuries: None

COL Injuries: N. Kadri (QUES- Thumb), A. Cogliano (QUES- Hand)

Team Prop Breakdown

TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-135/+105)

In Game 1, we saw the Lightning total 3 goals on just 23 shots on goal. Throughout, the entire playoffs the Bolts have struggled in the first game of a series. However, looking at their track record they’ve rebounded well in the following game.

COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 3.5 including OT (+110/-140)

The Avalanche were able to get four by Vasilevskiy in Game 1. This was just the fourth time this post season that Vasilevskiy has allowed four or more goals in a game. After those performances, he allowed three goals against in each of those games.

Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)

Nikita Kucherov 0.5 points (-250/+190)

Game 1: 1 Assist

Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last five games. He’s also gone over this number is four of his last five games away from home. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups. In the first game of this series over 0.5 was listed at -245 but has shifted to -290 in Game 2.

Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+135/-175)

Game 1: 0 Points

Alex Killorn has yet to record a point since Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. He’s currently on a twelve game streak where he has yet to tally at least one point in any of those games. Before this cold streak Killorn had four points in the first six games of the playoffs. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.

Mikko Rantanen 1.5 points (+175/-230)

Game 1: 2 Assists

In Game 1, Rantanen’s point total was listed at 0.5 (-250/+190) and has since shifted to 1.5. Mikko Rantanen has recorded over 1.5 points in three of his last five games. At home, he has gone over this number in each of his last three games. Be very careful playing this prop tonight, I would recommend staying away from it.

Steven Stamkos 2.5 shots (-180/+140)

Game 1: 3 Shots on Goal

Steven Stamkos has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five games on the road he has also gone over this number in four of his last five. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he only recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in one of those matchups.

Picks