The Lightning came out firing in Game 3 winning 6-2. Colorado will look to win Game 4 and have the opportunity to close it out on home ice. Tampa Bay has been great at home ice this post season so will see if that trend continues tonight.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 2-1)
Side Line Movement (COL: -110/ TBL: -110)
The Colorado Avalanche closed as home favorites in the first two games. In Game 3, that trend continued as the Lightning were favored. That was the first time that the Avalanche were underdogs in a game this post season. However, if we look at the line movement for that game, all of the action was placed on Tampa closer to puck drop moving that line from -110 to -120. For Game 4, it’s currently listed as a pick ’em but, I think we could see a similar scenario happen again where Tampa becomes the late favorite. However, the Avalanche have not lost back to back games in the playoffs so that may also play a role in the late line movement.
Total Line Movement (6.0: -105/-115)
The total for the first three games was set at 6 and it has gone over in every game. For Game 4, the total hasn’t moved at all. In Games 1 and 2 the total was juiced to the over but, in Game 3 that reversed. Moving onto Game 4, the total is again slightly juiced to the under.0.5
Game 4 Breakdown
In Game 3, the Lightning were finally able to get pressure on Colorado early and create high danger scoring chances. The Avalanche won the expected goal differential with 6.68 compared to Tampa Bay’s 4.33. As we expected in the majority of games this series, the difference was goaltending. Vasilevskiy played his best game of the series finishing with a +4.68 GSAx. Kuemper was pulled after the second with a -1.96 GSAx, so Francouz finished the game stopping 11 of 12 shots.
We turn to Game 4, where the Lightning are going try and repeat that performance they had last game. As we’ve seen in the past two seasons, they rely on Vasilevskiy so this game will again be up to him. He continues to stand up to any challenge, so there’s very little reason to doubt him.
To play devils advocate here, Tampa Bay hasn’t faced an offense as potent as Colorado’s in the past three post seasons. Despite them losing Game 3, they continued to drive scoring chances.
In Game 4, I don’t expect much to change as we’ve seen how these teams matchup. One concern for Tampa Bay is the status of Nikita Kucherov. He leads the team this post season with 26 points in 20 games. In Game 3, he left the game in the third period after a collision with Devon Toews. As of now, Jon Cooper has said he’s expected to play but, we’ll see come game time.
On the other side of the ice, Colorado is hoping to get back Nazem Kadri. He was sidelined in the Western Conference Finals and has been steadily progressing over the past week. Kadri has averaged over a point per game in the playoffs and would be a huge addition to Colorado’s lineup.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg), N. Kucherov (PROB – Lower Body)
COL Injuries: N. Kadri (PROB- Thumb), A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-165/+135)
Game 1 Team Total: 3
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in two out of the three games this series. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.89 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 3.25 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-175/+140)
Game 1 Team Total: 4
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in two out of the three games this series. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 4.75 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.00 goals against per game.
Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Nikita Kucherov 0.5 Points (-250/+190)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Nikita Kucherov has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In Game’s 1 and 2, the total was set at 0.5 and shifted to 1.5 in Game 3. Following Game 3, when he recorded 2 points, the line was shifted back to 0.5. Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last four home games.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+190)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. He’s currently on a seven game point streak. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number four times.
Nathan MacKinnon 0.5 Points (-240/+185)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 3 Points: 0
Nathan MacKinnon has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has only gone over this twice.
Alex Killorn 0.5 Points (+130/-165)
Game 1 Points: 0
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 0
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last fourteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Gabriel Landeskog 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165/+130)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 3
Gabriel Landeskog has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over that number four times. In the two regular season matchups, he recorded over 2.5 shots in one of those games.
Anthony Cirelli 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145/+115)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 1
Game 3 SOG: 2
Anthony Cirelli has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number in each game.
Ross Colton 1.5 Shots on Goal (-120/-105)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 1
Game 3 SOG: 1
Ross Colton has recorded under 1.5 shots on goal in each of his last five games. He’s also gone under this number in each of his last five home games.
Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy 32.5 Saves (-125/+100)
Game 1 Saves: 34
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
In Vasilevskiy’s last three games, he has recorded more than 32.5 saves twice. At home this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 31.55 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.38 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 25.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 20
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
In Kuemper’s last three games, he has gone under this number in all of them. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 28.63 shots against. At home this post season, the Bolts average 34.00 shots on goal for. This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games, to now 25.5.
Picks
- [0.50u] Andrei Vasilevskiy over 32.5 Saves (-125) – DraftKings
- [0.25u] COL/ TBL Under 6.0 (-114) – Barstool
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
