The Stanley Cup will be in the building tonight as Colorado looks to close out the back to back champs and capture their first title since 2001. Tampa Bay will hope to stay alive and force a Game 6 back on home ice. Teams with a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series have an all time record of 298-31 including a 35-1 mark in the finals.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 3-1)
Side Line Movement (COL: -190/ TBL: +160)
The home team has been the favorites in every game this series. However, tonight is the largest that Colorado has been favorited in a single game against Tampa Bay. This includes the regular season when they went off at -110 and -115 in their two matchups. The line opened at -160 and has since shot up to where it currently is.
There’s two ways of looking at this tonight. Either you think that based off the line movement, Colorado will definitely win tonight. Or, you believe that Tampa Bay moneyline has some value as they’ve never been offered at this price before.
Total Line Movement (6.0: -105/-115)
The total has been set at 6.0 for every game this series and that trend continues tonight. In Games 1 and 2, the total was juiced to the over. However, since Game 3 the under has been slightly juiced in every game since.
Game 5 Breakdown
The Avalanche have had more expected goals than Tampa Bay in every game this series. In the lone game the Lightning won, Andrei Vasilevskiy had a +4.68 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). While Tampa Bay have shown glimpses of hope, they’ve been outplayed by the Avalanche in every game this series. Despite Tampa Bay making their third consecutive Stanley Cup, they really struggle matching up with Colorado.
Going into Game 5, we find the Lightning with their backs against the wall. A scenario that they’ve been in before, and somehow seem to always come out on top. For a variety of reasons, this series seems different. It looks as though the past few years of playoff hockey have caught up with this veteran squad. By no means am I saying that they can’t or won’t win Game 5. Based off history there’s no reason to doubt this team. They have a core that has gone through this before and has ten times the playoff experience as the Avalanche. In the last two games, they’ve only allowed two 5-on-5 goals. If they can limit Colorado’s Power Play, which was been deadly in this series, the have a shot.
However, when we look at the two teams, the Bolts have a lot of their key guys hurt. Nikita Kucherov struggled last game after a collision with Toews in Game 3. Brayden Point has yet to play since Game 2 against the Avalanche. Erik Cernak and Anthony Cirelli are also day-to-day battling injuries.
Colorado on the other hand, got Nazem Kadri back in Game 4 who was the eventual difference maker scoring the winning goal in OT. Andrei Burakovsky is their only other player who’s hurt. He’s not likely to return to the lineup for the rest of the Finals but, Colorado has shown they can alter lines and plug in anyone to fit their game plan.
In terms of how I think Game 5 is going to go it’s tough to say. I had a pretty good read on Game 4 but, this one much more difficult. We’ve seen Colorado get beaten at home twice this post season. In terms of stats they perform much better when looking at home/ away splits. Tampa Bay on the other hand has struggled on the road this season, mainly due to Vasilevskiy’s performance. If you look at his home/ away splits in the post season, he’s much worse on the road. To counter that, he’s been incredible in elimination games throughout the past few playoffs.
I usually like to take the best number on the board but, I don’t see Colorado losing this game. They cannot afford to lose this game and give Tampa Bay and sense of hope. Colorado is going to come out firing in the first and try to get to Vasilevskiy early. I also see Tampa Bay forcing Colorado to score tonight. It shouldn’t be a low scoring game like we saw on Wednesday. Kuemper’s coming off the best game of this series and looking at trends, he’s allowed three or more goals after giving up 2 or less in the game prior. Most people aren’t giving Tampa Bay a shot in this game but I don’t hate them. While they’ve been outplayed, their one of those teams that just finds a way to win.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg), A. Cirelli (QUES- Arm), E. Cernak (QUES- Leg)
COL Injuries: A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-110/-120)
Game 1 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
Game 4 Team Total: 2 (OT)
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in two out of the four games this series. On the road this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.36 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 2.56 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-240/+195)
Game 1 Team Total: 4 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
Game 4 Team Total: 3 (OT)
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in three out of the four games this series. At home this post season, the Avalanche average 4.44 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.27 goals against per game.
Player Prop Breakdown (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Alex Killorn 0.5 Points (+150/-190)
Game 1 Points: 0
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 0
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last fifteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Gabriel Landeskog 0.5 Points (-175/+140)
Game 1 Points: 2 (1 Goal & 1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Goals)
Game 4 Points: 0
Gabriel Landeskog has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point four times.
Nathan MacKinnon 0.5 Points (-250/+190)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Nathan MacKinnon has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point in each game.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-250/+190)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. He’s currently on an eight game point streak. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point in each game.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165/+130)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Game 3 SOG: 4
Game 4 SOG: 2
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five away games, he has gone over this number four times.
Valeri Nichushkin 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 6
Game 2 SOG: 5
Game 3 SOG: 1
Game 4 SOG: 4
Valeri Nichushkin has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number four times.
Cale Makar 2.5 Shots on Goal (-200/+155)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 4
Game 3 SOG: 5
Game 4 SOG: 5
Cale Makar has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number two times.
Goalie Prop Breakdown
Andrei Vasilevskiy 33.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
Game 4 Saves: 34 (OT)
In Vasilevskiy’s last four games this series, he has recorded more than 33.5 saves three times. On the road this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 31.55 shots against. At home this post season, the Avalanche average 41.11 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 25.5 Saves (-115/-110)
Game 1 Saves: 20 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
Game 4 Saves: 37 (OT)
In Kuemper’s four games this series, he has gone under this number in three of them. At home this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 26.44 shots against. On the road this post season, the Bolts average 28.91 shots on goal for. This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games, to now 25.5 in Games 4 and 5.
Picks
- [1u] Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – Caesars
- Despite the lack of points in this series, MacKinnon has made his offensive presence known. He’s surpassed 4.5 shots on goal in six of his last seven playoff games. Over the course of the playoffs, he’s averaging 5.77 shots on goal per game. At home, that number jumps up to 6.0 sog/game.
- [0.50u] Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total over 2.5 (-110) – DraftKings
- Last game we saw Darcy Kuemper have his best game of the series with a +1.49 GSAx. He rebounded well after getting pulled in the game prior. If we look at numbers, they Lightning average below this number on the road. You’re probably asking yourself if the stats don’t correlate to the pick why do you like it? We’ll lets look at Tampa Bay’s current scenario. They’re in an elimination game on the road that no one thinks they can win. Colorado’s goalie, who has been the opposite of consistent this post season, is coming off his best game. I’m not sure Tampa Bay wins this game but, they won’t go down without a fight. We saw this in their first series against Toronto and I expect a similar effort tonight.
Leans
- Colorado/ Tampa Bay Over 6.0 (+102) – Barstool
- Ondrej Palat over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
