The Lightning took Game 5 by a score of 3-2. Game 6 will be back at Amalie Area where Tampa Bay has a 10-2 record this post season. Colorado still has lead in this series and will look to capture their first title since 2001.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 3-2)
Side Line Movement (COL: -120/ TBL: +100)
The home team has been the favorites in every game this series. However, that trend ends tonight as Colorado is the slight favorite. This is the first time all post season that Tampa Bay has been a home underdog.
Total Line Movement (6.0: +105/-125)
The total has been set at 6.0 for every game this series and that trend continues tonight. In Games 1 and 2, the total was juiced to the over. However, since Game 3 the under has been slightly juiced in every game since.
Trends:
- Avalanche are 8-1 in road games this post season
- Under is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 home games
Game 6 Breakdown
The Lightning survived elimination once, can they do it again? This time they’ll be on home ice where they’ve had a ton of success this post season. In the playoffs, they have a 8-2 record.
Colorado, who dropped Game 5, has a great track record away from home. On the road this post season, they have a 8-1 record. Their only loss was at the hands of Tampa Bay in Game 3. In that game, they had more expected goals than the Lightning but, still lost 6-2. The difference in that game was goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a +4.68 GSAx compared to Kuemper’s -1.96 GSAx.
We turn to Game 6, where it should be an incredible game. The Lightning have shown time after time, that they can get themselves out of any situation. However, as I talked about in Game 5, they’ve been outplayed this entire series. Despite Tampa Bay’s never say die attitude, I think their run finally comes to a close tonight.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (OUT- Leg)
COL Injuries: A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand), V. Nichushkin (QUES- Lower Body)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-145/+115)
Game 1 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
Game 4 Team Total: 2 (OT)
Game 5 Team Total: 3
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in three out of the five games this series. At home this post season, the Lightning average 3.70 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 3.11 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-180/+145)
Game 1 Team Total: 4 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
Game 4 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 5 Team Total: 2
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in three out of the five games this series. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 4.55 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Lightning average 2.10 goals against per game.
Player Prop Breakdown (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Alex Killorn 0.5 Points (+125/-170)
Game 1 Points: 0
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 0
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last sixteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Interesting note on this line: In Games 1-5, Killorn to record o0.5 points was listed at -150. In Game 6, the line has now dropped 15 cents to -135.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+185)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 5 Points: 0
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has recorded at least one point four times. Last game, his eight game point streak came to an end.
Ondrej Palat 0.5 Points (-140/+110)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Ondrej Palat has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last home games, he has recorded at least one point four times.
Valeri Nichushkin 0.5 Points (-135/+105)
Game 1 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 2 (2 Goals)
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 0
Game 5 Points: 2 (1 Goal, 1 Assist)
Valeri Nichushkin has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has recorded at least one point only once.
Nathan MacKinnon 4.5 Shots on Goal (-170/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 5
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 6
Game 4 SOG: 8
Game 5 SOG: 6
Nathan MacKinnon has recorded over 4.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number four times.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Game 3 SOG: 4
Game 4 SOG: 2
Game 5 SOG: 3
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number four times.
Victor Hedman 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 3
Game 4 SOG: 7
Game 5 SOG: 5
Victor Hedman has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number three times.
Cale Makar 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100/-125)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 4
Game 3 SOG: 5
Game 4 SOG: 5
Game 5 SOG: 5
Cale Makar has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number every time.
This line has moved from 2.5 in Games 1-5 to 3.5 for Game 6.
Goalie Prop Breakdown
Andrei Vasilevskiy 33.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
Game 4 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 5 Saves: 35
In Vasilevskiy’s five starts this series, he has recorded more than 33.5 saves four times. At home this post season, the Lightning give up an average of 34.00 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.22 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 26.5 Saves (-110/-115)
Game 1 Saves: 20 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
Game 4 Saves: 37 (OT)
Game 5 Saves: 26
In Kuemper’s five starts this series, he has gone under this number in three times. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 29.78 shots against. At home this post season, the Lightning average 34.50 shots on goal for.
This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games to 25.5 in Games 4 and 5. Now, it jumps back up to 26.5 for Game 6.
Picks
- [1u] Colorado Avalanche ml (-115) – DraftKings
- We saw the Lightning get a few “iffy” goals by Kuemper in Game 5. As I mentioned in my last article, his play is the exact opposite of consistency. Andrei Vasilevksiy’s play in elimination games continues to be spectacular. While I don’t doubt his play in tonight’s matchup, the Avalanche should be able to get 2-3 by him tonight. Colorado has been great away from home this post season and I believe they close out the Lightning in six.
- [0.50u] Cale Makar over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – DraftKings
- Cale Makar has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number every time.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
