Tampa Bay dominated Game 1 and proved why they were heavy favorites. They were able to match Montreal’s physicality while also burying 5 goals in a rout. The Lightning finished the game with 3.42 expected goals to the Canadians 2.02. Carey Price arguably had his worst game of the playoffs with a -1.58 GSAx. Kuckerov was a difference maker again for the Bolts, sparking their offense. He had 2 goals and 1 assist on the Steven Stamkos goal, who was able to put Montreal’s penalty killing streak to an end. Andrei Vasilevskiy continued to play great and shut down the Habs young guns. In Game 1 he would finish with a +1.02 GSAx.
Game 2: Montreal Canadians (+180) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-220)
After Game 1, most have counted Montreal out but, I don’t think that’s the case at all. I believe tonight’s matchup should be much tighter than what the series opener. Carey Price had an outlier performance in Game 1 and should rebound here as history has indicated. Looking at the lineups for tonight, the goalie’s will obviously not change and should remain constant in this series unless an injury happens. Both of these goalies have played outstanding these playoffs and have earned the right to start every game. The Lightning’s lineup will be slightly different as Alex Kilorn is out for Game 2. He’s been a great second line winger for them all playoffs and a key member of their powerplay. Even with Kilorn out, this Lightning team still has so much depth. They have historically dominated the Canadians as Montreal is just 1-8-1 in their last 10 meetings. The Canadians clearly need to make adjustments tonight and that starts with their defense. In Game 1, they clearly placed an emphasis on Kucherov but wasn’t really effective at all. They also took a lot of dumb penalties which they’ll need to avoid in Game 2 to limit Tampa’s powerplay. Montreal has had a great penalty kill all playoffs but, have not faced a team with this much skill on their powerplay. The good news for the Canadians is that they have proved they can make the necessary adjustments as they have not lost back to back games since the Toronto series.
This is a tough series to bet since the Lightning will be heavy favorites in every game, so finding value will be tough. Even though the Lightning will probably win this series, Montreal ml clearly has some value here. The Canadians closed Game 1 at +160 and are now up to +180/190 for Game 2. For tonight’s game I don’t necessarily expected the Canadians to win but as mentioned before, they should keep it close. I’ll be playing the Habs +1.5 and a small bet on the money line.
Pick: Montreal Canadians +190 (Risk 0.55)
Pick: Montreal Canadians +1.5, -145 (Risk 1.45)
