I think the wrong team is favored here in Vermillion, South Dakota tonight and recommend a play with the road team, Nebraska-Omaha here tonight. My blended power ratings here have Neb-Omaha a -4 favorite tonight on the road at South Dakota. I think the books are overvaluing home court here for South Dakota as their statistical matrics shouldn’t make South Dakota a favorite.
Neb-Omaha has the 53th ranked adjusted offense according to KenPom. Now, I recognize that you will look at their 305th ranked adjusted defense and pause with some concern. While that ranking is suspicious, their average opponent’s adjusted offense is ranked 160th in the country. South Dakota’s offense is a far cry from that, averaging 66 ppg and ranked 234th in adjusted offense while facing opponent’s defenses averaging 274th in the country. Couple those matchup favorables with the fact that these two teams play two different styles. Neb-Omaha pushes the pace at 108th in adjusted tempo, whereas South Dakota slows things down – ranked 256th in adjusted tempo. If South Dakota wishes to chew clock, they have to be efficient in their points per possession – something they are not great at.
On the season, against stiffer defenses, Neb-Omaha is remarkably efficient in their two point field goals, averaging 40.4 ppg from 2, contrasted to 32.7 for South Dakota. From 3, their margins are equally similar, where Neb-Omaha averages 27.6 ppg from 3 compared to 19.6 ppg from 3 for South Dakota. These margins are significant when the spread is Neb-Omaha +1.
In order to back South Dakota here, you have to be banking that they will outpeform their season and conference statistical performances to date, and the data just doesn’t back that up. They will have to force Neb-Omaha to be less efficient offensively, and while Neb-Omaha has a lot of work to do on the defensive end, you’d have to believe that South Dakota has more offensive firepower here than their opponent. I don’t see that happening and feel like the wrong team here is favored.
Play: Neb-Omaha +1. I have released this as a multi-unit play for my twitter followers.
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