A humbling night Friday as we went 0-3 in all of our player props. It’s a great lesson to remember in sports betting: props are hugely dependent on game narrative. In a game where the Bucks blew out the Hawks and were up by 30+ at halftime, most props for starting players had a 0% chance of ultimately hitting. It’s all good — all we can do is shrug it off and own our 7-4 record this week, which still ain’t too shabby. Onto my game four predictions between the Suns and Clippers!
Suns/Clippers 1st quarter under 54 (-115), 1.5 units and
Suns/Clippers full game under 218 (-110), 2 units:
Like last night’s game I’ll avoid picking a side tonight and instead I’ll stick to totals (I have to be honest, I’m being a little gun-shy with player props today, although I don’t think a bet on Paul George’s point-prop is a bad look). Game three at the Staples Center was a defensive contest for all 48 minutes, as we expected. It’s also why the Clippers were able to control the game. This is the Clippers style of basketball: methodical offense, gritty defense, perimeter shooting, and don’t make too many mistakes. For as solid a team as Phoenix is, they had more fouls, less rebounds, and didn’t benefit from a ton of points in the paint or on fast breaks in game three. All those categories are areas where the Suns usually excel. Like the Clippers, the Suns are well-coached and highly efficient, but it was that scrappy LAC defense that made all the difference on Thursday.
The Clippers are one of the slowest teams in the NBA playoffs and they’re only getting slower, now ranked 15th out of 16 teams this postseason. At home with a crowd behind their every move, they can get away with that sort of tempo. It’s also why they struggle on the road, especially against an excitable Suns team that doesn’t miss when they’re in rhythm at their arena. Phoenix isn’t far behind in pace, ranking 11th out of 16 teams. For all the fanfare that Paul George and Devin Booker and others get for their offensive prowess, it’s really the defenses that have separated these elite teams from other contenders. Each unit was top 10 in defensive efficiency all year and the Suns allowed the fewest points out of any team in the association during the regular season. The Clippers allowed the 7th fewest. My point in all of this is that the Suns and Clippers are settling into who they truly are– teams built to win because of their dynamic shooting ability and because of their exceptional defensive effort. Game four feels like it’ll be another tightly contested battle with each team struggling to find clear shots.
If the first quarter under doesn’t hit, which we expect, the full game total should reflect the eventual pace of this game and give us a + unit day. The addition of Chris Paul back from COVID protocol means the Phoenix offense becomes more calculated while the technical shooters of LAC prefer not to push the tempo either. This is an extremely pivotal game four, especially for the Clippers, and neither team can’t let it get out of hand early. Expect CLAMPS on defense from the get-go and a close game throughout.
