Kansas City vs Tampa +3 (-110) O/U 56
The Super bowl is here and it will be represented by some great teams here. No surprises that the quarterbacks in this huge game are Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. The largest data point that we can’t ignore is the fact that Kansas City came into Tampa Bay and kicked the crap out of them the whole first half. They were never in danger of losing the game and they allowed a lot of Garbage time for Tampa to get the back door cover. I am only giving Tampa a .5 home field advantage due to the fact that this is the super bowl and both teams have been better on the road. Lets get into some of the data. Tampa scores 28.5 points per game at home and 32.5 on the road while KC is 28 at home and 31.6 on the road. Advantage KC. Tampa also gives up more points at home at 23.9 to 21.2 on the road while KC is slightly better at home giving up 22 points to 23 on the road. The Total yards per game correlate the same. Football outsiders have their power numbers in DVOA has Tampa bay the second best team in the nation and KC the 6th best team in the nation. I can’t agree with that as I have the Chiefs the best team in football. For yards per play, Tampa Bay is at positive +.6 and Kansas City +.8. Advantage Kansas City. My Algorithm has Tampa by winning 28 to 27 based on the efficiency numbers but I disagree with it due to KC in my opinion having the harder schedule. But when I just use home vs Road Stats, I have Kansas City 29.5 to 27 making KC a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 56.5 Lets look at the matchups. KC has a pretty good rushing yards per attempt average at 4.5 while Tampa’s strength is against the run allowing only 3.7. On the other hand, KC is a little weak against the run, similar to the Green Bay packers allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt, but Tampa only averages 4.1 yards per rush themselves making this a mute point. On the receiving side of things, KC is an amazing 7.8 passing yards per attempt while Tampa allows an average 6.4 yards per pass. Tampa gets a nice 7.4 yards per passing attempt while KC allows 6.6. This is pretty much a wash although I will say that Tampa does give up 249 passing yards per game but their defensive backs have been on the right side of the officiating the last few games.
A key injury for Tampa was losing Jordan Whitehead last game to a shoulder injury, he will play but I have to imagine he is still somewhat hurt. Antoine Winfield is their other safety and he will play but missed his last game due to injury. Pressuring the QB will be key for Tampa’s success. They are 4th in Sacks this year and 3rd in pressure rate. Kansas City is 12th in pressure rate and 19th in sacks. Very average if you ask me. Tampa will have an advantage there especially if Eric Fisher is out this game. Advantage Tampa Bay. In Conclusion, being that my numbers slightly favor Tampa at the 3 and the data Point from their actual game and the upside favors Kansas City, I will probably stay away from the side in this game at these numbers. From my pure power ratings, using .5 as home field advantage, I have the Chiefs -3.25. I think that the best play for this game is to bet the first half under 27.5 points and the 2nd half over 29 if it is a close game at the half. Both teams will come out trying to not make mistakes and Tampa will try and establish a running game. The second half will be the one with the fireworks. I hope everyone has a fantastic day and enjoy the big game!
First Half Under 27.5 – 2 star premium shared play
