Cincinnati Bengals vs LA Rams -4 -190 O/U 48.5
Date: Sunday February 13th 2022
Time: 6:30 PM EST
Location: So-Fi Stadium Los Angeles California
Weather: 78 degrees with little to no wind
My friends, we have a super bowl and it’s time to try and find some value so we can profit off of some weakness. Now the Super Bowl is usually a pretty sharp line being that it is a stand alone game but there are some trends that tend to suggest the contrary.
BETTING TRENDS:
- The winner of the game has covered the spread in 16 straight Super Bowls.
- Underdog teams of at least three points are 7-2 outright and 8-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2007.
- The Total has been split down the middle, 26-26-2.
- Since 2001, underdog teams of at least three points are 12-3 ATS (9-6 outright).
Bengals Key Trends:
- The Bengals are 0-2 straight up and 1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
- The Bengals have covered the spread in seven straight games and were 13-7 ATS on the season.
- The Bengals are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 outright as an underdog of at least three points this season, including 6-0 outright and ATS when Joe Burrow plays.
LA Rams Key Trends:
- The Rams are 1-3 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four Super Bowl appearances.
- The Rams are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) against AFC teams in the past two seasons (1-4 ATS this season).
- For the season, the Rams are 10-10 ATS and 6-3 ATS in their past nine games.
Sharp Money Splits as of Tuesday 2/8/22 via the Action Network:
As you can see, over the last 16 Super Bowls, the spread hasn’t even come into play. As a matter of fact, over 90% of all Super Bowls, the spread hasn’t factored in. This means if you like a favorite, lay the points, and if you like the dog, take the money line. Am I buying this massive trend? Let’s just say somewhat. Let’s get into the Xs and Os of the handicap.
The Bengals seemed to have overachieved some to get this far. I thought that they were dead in the water against the Chiefs and KC decided to not score points in the second half due to a pace change, and if it wasn’t for the Titans 3 bad turnovers, I think that they win this game. Cincinnati is 11th in both offensive and defensive EPA telling me that they are just an above average team. The Bengals offense averages 26.6 points per game and their defense gives up 25.5. The Bengals are only .2 net yards per play. The Bengals biggest weakness on defense is against the run allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. The Bengals biggest weakness on offense is their offensive line ranking only 31st in adjusted sack rate and 15th in adjusted line yards. The Bengals biggest strength is their passing game and Joe Burrow who is 3rd in drop back EPA + completion percentage over expectation. They rank 7th in EPA per pass. If the Bengals have another strength it is Zack Taylor’s knowledge of coach Sean McVey of the Rams being that he has worked under McVeigh before being hired by the Bengals.
The Rams have seemed to underachieve some thus far being only 10-10 ATS. Their crumble vs Tampa Bay was based on some bad end of game fumbles juxtaposed with some Tom Brady Magic. Stafford showed poise winning that game. The Rams also out-gained the 49ers 396 yards to 282 yet only won by 3 points due to some bad red zone turnovers. LA scores 27.7 points per game and gives up only 21.4. The Rams are at .8 net yards per play while ranking 6th in both offensive and defensive EPA for the season. LA’s strengths are really all over the place. They have some shut down corners that stop the pass ranking 7th in opponent drop back EPA. Matt Stafford ranks 4th in drop back EPA + CPOE. Their offense ranks 6th in adjusted line yards and their offense under Sean McVey has some very nice misdirection plays that you will see in this huge game. The Rams are animals on the defensive front ranking 8th in adjusted sack rate and trending up now with Von Miller on board. If the Rams have a weakness, it’s that their offensive line only ranks 29th in power success rate which is for the run, and their defense only ranks 19th in power success rate. The Rams main weakness is over-pursuing the QB and getting burned by screens as you have seen San Francisco do to them all year with Deebo Samuel.
The Matchup really favors LA here. The Rams have a 5.2 net points per game advantage over the Bengals and they are playing at home. They also have a higher ranking in offensive and defensive EPA by 5 points each. The Rams defensive line should eat well this game raking 8th in adjusted sack rate to the Bengals offensive line ranking 31st. Joe Burrow’s sack prop of 3.5 shows that. The Rams have a .6 net yards per play advantage in this game. I can see the Rams moving the ball down field at will using all of those weapons that they have on offense. I also think that they will be moving the ball methodically, while draining clock. If the Bengals want any chance in this game, it will be the screen pass and throwing to RB check-downs in the flat. Otherwise, this game could get quite ugly. Lastly, the big kicker is that LA has had a much harder schedule than the Bengals ranking 2nd on team rankings to the Bengals 25th. This shows me that LA is battle tested.
Verdict: If I was setting this line, I would make it Rams -5.5. My final score and numbers from my algorithm and matchup analysis have the Rams winning this game 28-20 with some upside. I also think that the first half could start out slow being that this is such a crucial game to both teams. The lack of aggressiveness usually leads to punts and field Goals. I think that the way that I am going to approach this game is by taking the first half under 24 (Now 23.5) for a few units as well as taking an alt line on the rams -9.5 +175 for 1.5 stars. The prop game is where I will be most invested not counting my hedge on my future for the Bengals at 18-1. Have fun everyone and remember to enjoy the game! Don’t bet any amount of money that will make it miserable!
1st half under 23.5 – 2 stars
Rams -9.5 +175 – 1.5 stars
