The prevailing phrase you’ve heard over and over again leading up to Super Bowl Sunday is, “Yea but, Kansas City has Patrick Mahomes.” It’s hard to argue. Mahomes is the best football player in the world right now and if you pick the Chiefs at -3 solely on that angle, no one would blame you. The Chiefs are capable of hitting a gear in a way we’ve never seen before. The “Greatest Show on Turf ” Rams, the dominant Brady years in New England or the Joe Montana years in San Francisco, and maybe the Favre-led Green Bay Packers compare, but the Chiefs are young, fast, and they have the most creative play-caller and the most dynamic quarterback talent in the NFL. In our collective minds, as fans and critics, that combination puts Kansas City in another stratosphere.
What the Chiefs don’t have is Tom Brady. The 6-time Super Bowl winning quarterback has defied the odds, again. I won’t go over any of the astounding factoids that accompany Brady’s accomplishments but few pundits or “experts” predicted Tom-terrific would be right back in the big dance, 1 year into his new stint. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are full of talent and, in my opinion, are a more complete team than Kansas City. Their defense can blitz the QB and shut down the run, they have a very solid special teams unit, and their offense can hang with and often easily outscores its opponents. I mean, Antonio Brown is their third WR… that’s insane.
I’ve heard way too many sharps and sports media figureheads talking about Brady’s 3 interceptions in the NFC Conference game. I can’t emphasize enough what a misnomer that point is. Did Brady make a few mistakes? Sure (although you could argue 2/3 of those INTs weren’t his fault). But here’s what’s lost: Brady is at his absolute best when it matters most. He came out on fire and led Tampa to a TD on the very first drive. He hit Scotty Miller with that absolutely massive touchdown pass on 4th down from midfield to end the first half. He made big first down after big first down, keeping the ball out of Rodger’s hands with long, methodical drives. And it wasn’t Bruce Arians. It damn sure wasn’t the play-calling of Byron Leftwich. It was Brady’s execution. Brady didn’t need to be perfect in the second half, and he knew it. The Bucs maintained a 2-score lead. Critics downplay intangibles, but it’s the intangibles and big-game situations that Brady executes better than any other QB in football, and it’s why he keeps putting himself back in these big games. And now we know– he didn’t need the Patriots to do it.
I’m a huge fan of Mahomes and the Chiefs and I love their style of play, but that’s too easy a take. The Bucs will be the first team ever playing a Super Bowl on their home turf. You think that doesn’t help the nerves of Tampa’s young players? You bet it does. In addition and flying under the radar is the fact that the Chiefs have now lost 3 starting offensive linemen this year. Creativity will help, but going against Shaq Barrett and JPP and company won’t be easy with a less-experienced operation protecting Mahomes.
The line at KC -3 is as sharp as it gets, but I can’t dismiss what Brady does in big-game situations. When the pressure is high he’ll refuse to lose, just like he’s done his whole career. I think it’s very likely that Super Bowl LV will come down to the final possession. There’s a 14.5% probability that a football game is decided by 3 points. I will be all over Tampa Bay +3.5 if and when it’s available. I’ll take the Bucs at +3 if I’m forced to, for less units. Here are all my favorite bets for the big game:
– Bucs +3.5 or higher (waiting on this number), 3 units
– Bucs +3, 2 units
– 1st Half under 27.5 (-110), 1.5 units
– Live over bet if/when the game starts slow, 1-2 units depending on the total
– Tom Brady to throw over 300 passing yards (-114), 2 units
