The biggest betting event of the year is this Sunday and it should be a fantastic game. I know there’s a ton of huge prop bets where you could bet $10 to win $2,000+ etc., but they’re at that price for a reason (i.e., you’ll lose). Below are my favorite prop bets and it’s all on wagers you could actually win– Go figure!
Brady over 300.5 passing yards (-114): The Bucs will want to run and keep the ball away from Mahomes. That’s the plan for every team that faces Kansas City. Then a few crazy passes by Mahomes to Kelce or Hill and they score 21 points in 6 minutes and that plan gets blown to shit. Brady will need to throw often and it’s likely Tampa will be playing from behind, at least at some point. Brady would rather saw his arm off than lose, so I don’t think he’ll mind pushing it to the limit (and way over 300 yards) on Sunday.
Bucs -1.5, 1st half only (+155): We all know by now that the Chiefs love to start slow and play from behind. Brady was on fire at the start of the NFC Championship, and I could easily see the Bucs keeping an early lead.
Lead change in 4th (+190): I really like this bet and this price. It’s the GOAT against the league’s most talented QB but more importantly, it’s two QBs who refuse to lose in big-game situations. I think a lead change in the 4th quarter is more than likely, making this great value.
First first down to TB (+105): If the Bucs get the ball first, and that’s better than a coin-flip chance since Andy Reid may choose to kick, then there’s a high chance that this hits. The Bucs’ first drive will be scripted to perfection, and a first down should come easy. If Kansas City gets the ball first, well, you’re screwed.
Most first downs, TB (+130): Mahomes and the Chiefs rely on big plays; Brady and the Bucs rely on (mostly) methodical drives and a balanced attack. The Chiefs could win by 20 and still lose the first-down contest.
Patriots mentioned more than 2 times (-150): You’re telling me the broadcast booth can contain themselves and not mention the Patriots 1000 times during this broadcast? Please. This is inflated for a reason– it’s going to happen.
Missed PAT- Yes (+210): The weather “experts” are calling for a windy (and possibly rainy) day in Tampa, and field goal kickers haven’t been very clutch on PATs this year. In fact, Tampa and Kansas City are in the bottom quadrant of NFL teams on extra point conversion % this year. This might be worth a shot!
Roughing the Passer- Yes (+130): I mean, the Super Bowl features probably the two most protected passers in the league, so why wouldn’t this happen? It’s likely that Todd Bowles calls a more aggressive game-plan to try and aggravate Mahomes, and Brady’s old legs don’t dance like they used to. The refs won’t ease up on a linebacker coming at light-speed if he smacks one of the NFL’s golden boys.
Bucs/Chiefs double-result (+550): By far the biggest “risk” on this page, I still really like this bet. Like I mentioned before– the Chiefs can get off to slow starts and they almost seem to prefer playing behind early (Bills last week, Texans last year, and oh yea– last year’s Super Bowl). Brady won’t be nervous as he continues his house-money run as the GOAT, so it’s not unimaginable that he’ll lead the Bucs to a few early scores. Second half– Chiefs start to roll, Mahomes shines, and it all happens like we thought. I can see it…
