It’s been one HELL of a year in the NFL for your boy! Placing 5th in the NFL Circa Sports Million was a dream come true, but we promise– this is just the beginning.
We’re hitting at 57% in the NBA and 60% in CBB right now – survey the betting world and it would be hard to find anyone hitting at that rate; that’s just the truth. We’re also up 45 units since Jan 1 across all premium picks. Click this link for a very fair price on my premiums sent directly to your mailbox, every single morning! Onto my Super Bowl plays:
Odell Beckham over 5.5 receptions (+100), 2 units: I wrote this as my “free play of the week” in my newsletter (DM me on Twitter @FarleyBets if you want to receive my weekly email), so I might as well post it here, too!
There’s a good chance Odell Beckham Jr., the enigmatic wide receiver who was signed by the Rams in mid-November, plays a key role in this year’s Super Bowl. Love him or hate him, OBJ is as hyped as any player entering the championship game. Underutilized in New York and Cleveland for too many seasons, it seems Odell finally found a place where he can maximize his skill set. Since the start of the playoffs, Odell and Rams QB Matthew Stafford connected for 19 receptions in 3 games. OBJ has become that go-to, first-down WR when Stafford needs a safety net, especially since Cooper Kupp is routinely double-teamed by opposing defenses. The Bengals doubled Tyreek Hill last week, which proved effective, and we assume they’ll do the same with Cupp. Cupp just won Offensive Player of the Year and it’s well deserved — he’s been virtually unstoppable as LAR’s #1 receiver all season. But it also garners a lot of attention – Odell will be needed and needed often.
On most teams, OBJ would be the #1 pass catcher. Expect the talented WR to out-run and out-maneuver his coverage in short yardage situations throughout this contest. I love this over prop for a great value at even money.
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Rams/Bengals 1Q under 9.5 points (-120), 2.4 units: This is traditionally one of my favorite bets, and it’s plain to see why. Check out how the last few title game totals have gone in the 1st quarter of action:
- 2021: 10 points
- 2020: 10 points
- 2019: 0 points
- 2018: 12 points
- 2017: 0 points
- 2016: 10 points
- 2015: 0 points
- 2014: 8 points
- 2013: 10 points
- 2012: 9 points
For those of you who aren’t math majors out there, that’s 6.9 points per 1st quarter over the last 10 years. And I know what you’re thinking– that’s a LOT of totals that hit 10 or were right around 10, Chris… so how much value is there, really? I say there’s plenty.
What’s different about this Super Bowl is pretty obvious. We have two QBs who have never been to the “big dance” before. Joe Burrow is only in his FIRST full season as a starting quarterback after he famously tore his ACL in Week 11 last year. Matthew Stafford is trying to prove why he should have been here a long time ago. Either way, both of these QBs will feel the pressure from the onset of this contest. I’d say there’s a 70-75% chance that both offenses will play conservatively at first – lots of short passes, screens, and runs to get their offenses in rhythm and to take pressure off the throwers.
Not to mention, there’s plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for the other offenses’ attack. There’s a reason why the game total has fallen. Fortunately for us, the 1Q total has not. I’m all over it.
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Other insights and recommendations:
- Avoid dumb bets like how many times announcers will say this or that, how long the halftime show will last, the color of the winning team’s Gatorade bash, etc. Is burning money your goal? Cool, didn’t think so.
- Play on your props based on game narratives.
- Do you think the Rams defensive front dominates? Play on Bengals yards under.
- Do you think both offenses struggle in the first half? Play on unders.
- Do you think the Rams will win the first half? Do you think the Bengals can come back in the second half? Look at half/quarter sides.
- The Super Bowl should be fun. Yes, it’s a great way to win money and wager on valuable props, but if you’re overly investing your bankroll in this ONE contest, chances are it could very well ruin your watching experience. Plenty of opportunities to bet on sports will be available all week – you don’t need to exacerbate your exposure.
