Superbowl 53 – LA Rams vs New England Patriots -2 O/U 58
So running the exact raw numbers, I have the Patriots winning 24-23.5. What I am about to say I have always thought this and I still do… I may be wrong but if you score to take the lead over the Patriots and give them over 45 seconds up by 4 – 6.5 then you are dead in the water. I know its crazy to think Reid should have played to “slowly” to only score at the end but I feel that gamble is only correct playing against this dynasty of a team like the Patriots and it sure as hell didn’t help that KC’s defense is one of the worst in the entire league. Thank god they scored as well to push overtime (maybe the pats scored too quickly as well) but the coin flip obviously did KC in at the end.
I think that there is value in the under in the full game and the first half under UNTIL the 4th quarter. Both of these defenses have been playing extremely well especially in the first halves of their last 8 games. Belichek will start this game off slow as usual and try establish the run. The Rams will come out most likely feeling the pressure of the huge event and try and take care of the ball especially since they had that first quarter interception last game. If you look at all playoff games in general, they trend towards the under until the 4th quarter as we saw the Patriots and Chiefs score 38 points. I am going to take UNDER 58 points with 3 units only to buy back on the over at either 1.5 Units or 3 for the second half or before the 4th quarter. Should this game be trending under until the second half, you will have a good option to double up with the hedge.
I am also taking the first half UNDER 28 for 1.5 units.
Under 58 and under 28 first half
