It’s a wild day at the Farley household so this post will be more brief than usual. Can’t wait to just sit back and watch today’s games once all the mayhem ceases (i.e. we have family coming today, which is always madness). 1-2 yesterday in my picks– let’s do it better today! Here are Sweet 16 Sunday picks:
Creighton/Gonzaga over 158 (-110), 2 units: Gonzaga beats teams in a lot of different ways, but none more famously than just boat-racing their opponents on the scoreboard. Creighton plays good defense but I don’t think they’re built to stop all the diverse ways that Gonzaga can score. I see the Bulldogs using their pace and effective output to overwhelm the Bluejays from the start of this contest. As a unit, Creighton does a good job finding both high quality shots (they’re 3rd in the nation in near proximity field goal percentage at Haslametrics) and buckets from beyond the arc (ranked 28th overall in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs play top 10 defense but Creighton will have to increase their tempo and chase Gonzaga throughout, which should push the tally to soar even more. I’ll take the over here for 2 units.
Michigan -2 (-110), 1.5 units: The Seminoles stepped up big time last week and gave us a huge win both here in my free plays for 3 units and for premium customers, but this is where the buck stops if you’re asking me (and you are, right?). Florida State is long and full of skill-players but they don’t do well in big spots like this against elite opponents. We’ve seen it a few times during the season and it’ll be on full display today. Hunter Dickinson and the Michigan Wolverines play smart, efficient basketball on both ends of the court and I expect them to show off just how deadly they are both beyond the arc and at the rim against a Florida State defense that isn’t as disciplined. The Wolverines play methodical and don’t depend on any one type of style. The Seminoles, as talented as they are, are a more emotional and volatile team that needs to play exceptional all game to keep up with an elite team like this. Michigan won’t drop the ball and let that happen Sunday. Bet the Wolverines.
Alabama -6.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I’m on the Bama train! I’ll keep this one real short. I give UCLA a lot of credit for what they’ve been able to do thus far but I’m not as impressed by their level of opponent in the first 2 rounds. Alabama will serve as a huge uptick in class for the Bruins. As you probably know, the Crimson Tide can score and score in bunches very quickly (ranked 11th in tempo on KenPom) and I don’t think the 58th ranked defense of UCLA will be able to keep pace, especially weighing the fact that Alabama has one of the best defenses in the nation. I think Bama wins big here.
