We finally are at the end of the triple crown and I have to ask myself, what have we learned? What I have learned is if you keep going with the general perception on things, not only will you cash small tickets, you will also miss out on big opportunities. The Kentucky Derby and the Preakness this year had some very big long shots finish 1st and/or 2nd place cashing some monster size tickets for a very select few. Now we are at the Belmont here AKA Big Sandy and what is everyone talking about???? The 2 favorite horses that are not even going off better than 2-1 is what. I also find it very ironic that some of these experts are also talking about how evenly matched these horses are this year. It’s almost like players are contradicting themselves. For me this sets up quite well to play the contrarian here based on what I saw in the Derby, Preakness and prep races juxtaposed with larger odds and bigger purses. I am not saying that War of Will and Tacidus won’t win or place in this race but what I am saying is that they are not worth the bets at these odds. My strategy here is that I am not going to let these two horses beat me BUT what I am going to do is go with Jockey and recency over everything else. My two horses are Bourbon War and Sir Winston. I was on Bourbon war during the Preakness and he kind of got destroyed as we all saw. My excuse for him is that he had blinkers on and is more of a distance horse. His price at 12-1 looks good to me especially with Mike Smith riding him. We have to remember that this race needs a good Jockey and I think there is some good value here. I am taking him in my exotics as well as to place. My other horse is Sir Winston that Marco D’Angelo spoke about on the podcast. This horse just raced at the Peter Pan here at Belmont Park and was flying at the end of the race taking second. If the Peter Pan was a mile and a half rather than a mile and 1/8th, I think he would have won that race. Sir Winston scored a 100 Beyer speed figure in this race and Joel Rosario is riding him over Everfast for a reason. There is a good chance that the #1 horse Joevia sets suicide (fast) fractions in the beginning of this race making it good for the closers. I am going Horizontal to win, place and show for both of these horses. I also do not want to let War of Will and Tacidus beat me as I stated earlier so here are my Belmont Plays for a total of $200
Belmont Park Race #11
$ 5 Straight (5: 5/5/5 , 7: 5/5/5) $30
$ 0.5 Trifecta (6, 7, 9, 10 / 5, 6, 7, 9, 10 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) $56
$ 3 Exacta (7, 9, 10) BOX $18
$ 1 Exacta (5, 6, 7, 9, 10 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) $40
$ 1 Exacta (2, 3, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 9, 10) $14
$ 1 Exacta (2, 4 / 2, 3, 4, 6) $6
$ 1 Trifecta (5, 6, 7, 10) BOX $24
$ 0.1 Superfecta (5, 6, 7, 9, 10) BOX $12
1. Joevia (30-1)
2. Everfast (12-1)
3. Master Fencer (8-1)
4. Tax (15-1)
5. Bourbon War (12-1)
6. Spinoff (15-1)
7. Sir Winston (12-1)
8. Intrepid Heart (10-1)
9. War of Will (2-1)
10. Tacitus (9-5)
