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Blue Bloods Part 1!
Villanova vs Kansas -4.5 O/U 133
This game should be so good that even a crazed war veteran like John Rambo would stop crushing commies and come sit down and watch it. I think that I speak for anyone who isn’t a Kansas fan that I am pretty bummed out about the injury to starter Justin Moore for the Villanova Wildcats. That last game vs Houston was so close to being over, and his extra effort tore his Achilles and ended is season so abruptly. Moore is the second leading scorer at 14.8 points per game and the minutes played leader at 34.8. Now most of the metrics sites has this game a close one with Kansas being favored by 1 point without factoring in this injury. This is where we have to dive in and find out what the proper reaction is to this disadvantage. One thing about this whole situation is that we have to keep in mind that Nova pretty much has played most the year on a 6 man rotation. Their 7th and 8th players off the bench are at least both guards though who do not even average 10 minutes of playing time per game. Do we trust the talent that this team recruits to step up here when needed? Well the answer is yes and we have to give Jay Write the benefit of the doubt.
If I have learned one thing while handicapping college basketball games over the years, it’s that no player is worth over three points to any program and especially to a team that recruits talent and has a great coach. Numbers have also shown in the past that teams who lose a key player tend to rise up to the challenge in the very next game and this is the spot that we keying in on. Let’s look at some matchups. Villanova ranks 66th in adjusted 3 point percentage and Kansas ranks 8th in defending it. The issue for the Cats is that they rank 9th in three point attempts which could spell disaster if Kansas defends them well. Kansas themselves shoots the long ball well ranking 27th in adjusted 3 point percentage but Villanova ranks 5th in defending it. Overall advantage, Kansas. In near proximity shooting, Kansas is better but Villanova’s defense is also better than Kansas’s so this shows to be a wash. As far as free throws go, nobody is better than the Wildcats shooting over 82% as a team. The Jayhawks shoot 71.9% which is average at 164th in the nation. Advantage Villanova. As far as coaching, I have to give a slight edge to Jay Wright over Bill Self but it is very slight as Self has proven to be a wonderful tournament coach himself.
I think that we have to think like a smart coach here in a situation where a team lost their second best player. Kansas is the better team and I give them a 65% chance of winning this game, but I also think that Villanova will slow the game down to a crawl, and hope that the fewer possessions allow his team to take some better shots and stay in this game. The Formula has been out to beat Kansas thanks to the Texas schools who all gave Kansas fits. TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor have all beaten Kansas this year by slowing down the speed in the game with all wins having less than 70 possessions. This is the way that Jay Wright is going to attack this very talented Jayhawks squad, and he will hope that the dark backdrops of Mercedes Benz Superdome will help his team out. I can see this game remaining in the low 60s and will lean to the under. What keeps me off the full game under is the desperation fouls that could happen at the end. I do like the first half under 62.5 points but when this spread breaches the 5, I will be looking to play Villanova here due to the coaching and the venue.
1st half under 62.5 – 2.5 stars
Wait on the line to go past 5 to bet the Cats
