Wednesday:
Notre Dame vs Rutgers +1 O/U 132
This might be a home game in Dayton for Notre dame here. We have give them 1.5 for that. In saying that, I don’t think that the efficiency sites have it correct on the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has had the harder strength of schedule than Notre Dame and I have to factor that in here. One matchup advantage that the St. Patty’s day boys have is that shoot a lot of 3s when ranking high at 19th in the nation in three point percentage at 37.7%. Rutgers isn’t good at defending it only ranking 202nd against the long ball. How Rutgers might win this game is that they are great inside. The Knights rank 35th in near proximity shots while Notre Dame ranks only 202nd defending it. That is huge and on a neutral court, rebounds will factor in more where Rutgers also has the advantage. If Rutgers can defend the long ball here, they can win this game and I think the senior leadership that they have in Omiyuri, Baker and Harper will stick out.
Rutgers +1.5 for 1 star
Uconn vs New Mexico State -6.5 O/U 133.5
This is pretty much a home game for UCONN being played in Buffalo New York. I really like what NM State has done this year and they have has some hiccups but they are a sneaky good team that matches up well with UCONN. Both teams have very good defense and will shut each other down inside. Neither team shoots the 3 that good and UConn doesn’t defend it that well. NM state’s big problem is turning the ball over and if that happens a lot it could be very bad, but the good thing is that the Huskies do not have a ball hawking defense and do not get many steals ranking 232nd in the nation. Even though the Huskies play in a much tougher conference and will be at home ish, I think that the Aggies are a very experienced team that got in some great transfers like Teddy Allen and Mario McKinney. I make the number Uconn -6 but I think that the 1st half under 61.5 makes a ton of sense.
1st half under 61.5 – 1.5 stars
Vermont vs Arkansas -5 O/U 139
This game is also in Buffalo NY, and much more of a home game for Vermont. Razorback fans will have to decide between Hogs and gas prices. Arkansas isn’t the greatest team away from home but they had a MUCH harder strength of schedule than Vermont did. Vermont actually has a pretty big matchup advantage from 3 ranking 38th in three point percentage while Arkansas ranks only 131st in defending it. This Vermont team didn’t play anyone but they are also not used to losing and it only happened once in overtime since December 7th. I like this game close
Play Vermont +5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
