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If there was ever a quadrant that had more question marks than the dirty south this year, I would like to revisit that for comparison. This region is full of teams that are either injured, didn’t play a hard schedule, have a big hole in their game, or just came out of nowhere to win their conference tournament. Florida and Marquette have the big injury questions, Kentucky, NC State, Texas Tech and Wisconsin can’t play good defense. Looking at teams that do not shoot well finds Houston, Boise State and Vermont while James Madison, and Western Kentucky didn’t play a hard schedule of opponents. NC State and Oakland pretty much just came out of nowhere to win their conference tournament. Something’s gotta give. Here are some futures that I think might have some value.
Odds to win the South Region: Florida +1500 – .25 stars
James Madison +7500 – .25 stars
Let’s get into some games!
- I am sure that people are wondering why this line is so big after NC State ripped through the ACC. I’ll tell you why! Because the market knows how hard it is to bounce back from this kind of an emotional accomplishment?
- Not to mention, Texas Tech has all kinds of advantages from three point land and near the rim against NC State’s defense. The market already has the let down factored into the line, but I think after the first few minutes, you will know the right side of this game.
Live bet NC State if they start hot
Kentucky vs Oakland +13.5 O/U 162
- Kentucky may be the hardest team in the whole tournament to predict. They beat teams like Tennessee, Florida, UNC, and Alabama yet they lose to UNC Wilmington, LSU and twice to Texas A&M.
- One thing that the Wildcats should do is start this game out fast. They will build a margin right away with their fast pace ranking 9th in Tempo.
- There is gonna be a pretty substantial size and talent discrepancy in this game. Kentucky has a load of NBA players and are number nine in average height. Oakland ranks 291st in average height and will struggle to rebound the basketball against the Cats.
- When Kentucky gets hot, they score at will. At 57.4% effective FG% and number one in shooting from downtown will put up enough points to easily clear this spread. Defense may not even be a factor if that happens.
- Take the cats
Kentucky -13.5 – 2.5 stars
Longwood vs Houston -24 O/U 128
- One safe bet is that I know that Beavis and Butthead will certainly be rooting for Longwood here, but like those two, I am just not so sure that they can score.
- Houston is the number two team in all of the efficiency sites and that is because they play lock down defense.
- Imagine losing the way that they did to rival Iowa State and having to think about it all week long? There is absolutely no metric that can be made that gives Longwood any sort of advantage over the Cougars. Lay the wood with Houston!
Houston 1st half -14.5 – 2 stars
Houston Full Game -23.5 – 1 star
Vermont vs Duke -12 O/U 132.5
- If I wasn’t looking at the seeds, I would assume that Duke would be a 20 point favorite in this game right?
- Something really isn’t adding up here. Vermont plays in a terrible America East conference and somehow this team is ranking 104th on Kenpom. The committee liked this team so much that they gave them a 13 seed. I am not so sure about that.
- When Vermont stepped up in competition to the ACC this year, they got blown out by Virginia Tech.
- Kenpom has duke as the number 8 team in the nation. Doesn’t that mean that they should be a two seed? Well I wouldn’t quite go that far, but I could certainly see a motivated Blue Devils team take it to the Catamounts come Friday. Duke coming off of two losses in a row will be motivated here for a great showing.
Duke -12 – 2 stars
